臺、韓與美、中之間的跨國景氣互動分析－從產業關聯層面探討

國際貿易對臺灣經濟表現影響相當明顯，然過去文獻有關國際景氣如何對臺灣經濟造成影響的研究幾乎都針對國家總體產出進行分析，無法了解景氣互動的傳遞管道；此外，韓國經濟發展歷程與臺灣相似，都是出口導向的經濟體，然過去文獻亦鮮少對臺灣與韓國的產業進行廣泛的比較分析。本文延續梁國源, 高志祥, 與周大森 (2005); Chou, Gau, and Liang (2007); 姜權祐 (2017) ; Liang, Chang and Pan (2020)之研究，將臺灣製造業主要競爭對手－韓國，納入分析，並對臺灣-美國-中國的貿易關係與韓國-美國-中國的貿易關係進行比較，研析臺灣與韓國製造業如何受到美國與中國景氣波動的影響。本文樣本資料涵蓋1981年至2014年製造業大業別及製造業下12個中業別的產出資料，以2016年版臺灣行業分類標準對產出資料進行整併，並將時間細分為四個時期：1981-1991年、1992-2003年、2004-2008年、2009-2014年，探討四個時期臺灣、韓國分別與美國、中國的相關係數變化。本文進一步將製造業中四個代表性產業：石油塑化產業、機械設備產業、汽車運輸產業、電腦電子產業進行詳細探討，爬梳產業發展脈絡，並利用單根檢定及共整合檢定分析數據，實證結果共得到四點結論：(1)整體而言，臺灣及韓國經濟與美國經濟關聯較為密切，中國經歷改革開放後，臺灣及韓國經濟對其關聯日益加深；(2)臺灣製造業產出較為集中，僅有石油塑化產業在遭受經濟衝擊時較具韌性。韓國製造業產出較為分散，當遭受經濟衝擊時，機械設備產業、汽車運輸產業、電腦電子產業等三個產業較有韌性；(3)臺灣製造業部分業別與美國、中國有相同的隨機趨勢，整體而言韓國製造業與美國、中國有相同的隨機趨勢，在統計上，韓國製造業與國外景氣波動關聯性較臺灣製造業密切；(4)長期而言，所有四個代表性產業與美國、中國對口產業產出及總體產出具有相同的隨機趨勢，在統計上，韓國製造業代表性產業與國外景氣波動關聯性較臺灣為顯著。

關鍵字

景氣循環同步性；產業相關性；共整合檢定；臺灣製造業；韓國製造業

並列摘要

The impact of international trade on Taiwan's economic performance has been very obvious. However, the literature on how the international economy affects Taiwan’s economy has been mostly focused on national output analysis, without touching on how effects are produced through which channels of economic interaction between both. At the same time, despite that South Korea's and Taiwan’s economic development courses have been similar to each other, both economies being export-oriented, there has been very little comparative analysis of industries of the two. Fallowing past researches, ( Liang, Gau and Chou, 2005; Chou, Gau, and Liang, 2007; Chang, C. Y., 2017 ; Liang, Chang and Pan, 2020), this study includes the analysis of Taiwan’s major competitor, South Korea, and compares Taiwan-US-China trade relations with that of South Korea-US-China, by investigating how Taiwan’s and South Korea’s manufacturing industries are affected by the United States and China. The paper uses manufacturing output data in the period from 1981 to 2014 for the industry as a whole and its 12 sub-industries by Taiwan Industry Classification Standard, and divides the time span into four sub-periods: 1981-1991, 1992-2003, 2004-2008, and 2009-2014 to study changes in industry output coefficients of Taiwan and South Korea with respect to the United States and China in four sub-periods. This paper then looks further into four representative manufacturing industries: petroleum and plastic industry, machinery industry, vehicles transportation industry, computer and electronic products industry. Panel unit root test and panel cointegration test are applied for data analysis. The empirical results have come to four conclusions: (1) Overall, both the Taiwan and South Korea economies are more closely related to the US economy. However, ever since China carried out reforms and opened up, its economic relations with Taiwan and South Korea, respectively, have become deeper and deeper; (2) Taiwan's manufacturing output is more concentrated (in a few sub-industries) than South Korea’s, with only the petroleum and plastic industry being more resilient to economic shocks. South Korean manufacturing output is more sparsely structured (among sub-industries) than Taiwan, with three sub-industries, namely machinery, vehicles transportation, and computer and electronic products, being more resilient when subjected to economic shocks; (3) Some of Taiwan’s sub-manufacturing industries have the same stochastic trend as the United States and China, while the Korean manufacturing industry as a whole has the same stochastic random trend as the United States and China. In general, the Korean manufacturing industry is more closely related to foreign economic fluctuations than the Taiwanese; (4) In the long run, all four representative industries of Taiwan and South Korea, respectively, have the same stochastic trend with their counterparts in the United States and China. However, Korea's representative manufacturing industries have a higher correlation with foreign economic fluctuations than Taiwan.

並列關鍵字

Business Cycle Synchronization ； Industry Correlation ； Panel Cointegration Test ； Taiwan Manufacturing Industry ； Korea Manufacturing Industry

參考文獻

Bee Yan Aw, S. C., and Mark J. Roberts. (2000). “Productivity and Turnover in the Export Market:Micro-level Evidence from the Republic of Koreaand Taiwan (China)”. The World Bank Economic Review, 14(1), 65-90.

Google Scholar

Briguglio, L., Cordina, G., Farrugia, N., & Vella, S. (2009). “Economic Vulnerability and Resilience: Concepts and Measurements”. Oxford Development Studies, 37(3), 229-247.