今年起強制分紅保單結束,取而代之的是分紅保單與不分紅保單。觀察現在市場中發現,發行比較多的以不分紅保單為主。然而,分紅保單與不分紅保單的保單性質不同,在不同經濟情況之下對股東的影響也將會不同。本論文將設定不同的未來長期利率預期值,來觀察保險公司在不同狀況下應發行何種保單對股東較有利,並且分析保險公司發行分紅保單與不分紅保單應作何種資產配置對於股東較有利。我們擬定一個假設保單,為十年期躉繳生死合險保單。設定分紅保單發行比例為a,而不分紅保單發行比例為(1-a)。考慮解約率隨市場利率而同向變動,以及不同資產配置比例,模擬每一期的股東現金流量,再複利至保單契約結束時,以便觀察股東在最後可得之金額。
It had been prohibited to issue compulsory participating policies in this year. Instead of this, insurance companies issue participating policies and nonparticipating policies. However, because of the different properties in participating policies and nonparticipating policies, we can find that the impact to the insurance company’s stockholders would also be different. In this article, we will set several expected values of the future long-term interest rate to analysis what is the best strategy for the stockholders in different economic environments.