川普政府對中貿易談判：以雙層賽局分析

美國房地產大亨川普在2016年出乎各界預料地當選第45任美國總統。川普自競選期間以來，對中國發出許多批評及威脅。川普正式就任後，利用其個人獨特的談判手段對中施壓，要求中國進行結構性改革。但川普的訴求及加徵關稅手段，可能對川普的支持者造成經濟損失。川普政府對中進行貿易談判的同時，如何施壓中國完成談判？如何說服美國國內選民，支持川普政府的對中政策？經過美中貿易談判後，美國國內對於中國的認知與政策偏好是否改變？　　本文根據Robert Putnam提出的雙層賽局理論作為本文研究途徑進行分析。雙層賽局理論注重國際談判時，國際層次與國內層次相互影響的觀察。雙層賽局理論的重要概念為：「勝利集合」。談判國在國際層次與國內層次都會面臨到虛擬的「勝利集合」，當談判國間「勝利集合」相重疊時，談判將會成功並落實。　　除了雙層賽局理論外，本文利用單一個案研究法及文本分析法作為研究方法。蒐集相關文本對川普政府時期的美中貿易談判進行分析。其中還蒐集《紐約時報中文網》有關美中貿易談判的報導，進行新聞框架分析。研究發現，川普及其政府確實試圖影響美中貿易談判的國際層次與國內層次的「勝利集合」。國際層次上，川普政府以加徵關稅作為主要手段，施壓中國妥協、讓步。國內層次中，川普個人透過社群媒體推特發表美中貿易談判相關言論，為其政策辯護並鞏固支持者。川普政府則透過新聞訪談、演說、相關政策等影響國內選民。不僅如此，透過新聞報導及美國學界研究的分析，在美中貿易談判後，美國政界、商界、學界、一般民眾對於中國皆增加負面的感受，傾向對於中國採取更加競爭的政策。

關鍵字

川普政府；美中貿易談判；雙層賽局理論；勝利集合；新聞框架分析

並列摘要

American real estate mogul, Donald Trump, was unexpectedly elected as the 45th President of the United States in 2016. Since Trump's election campaign, he has issued many criticisms and threats against China. After Trump officially took office, he used his unique negotiating skills to put pressure on China and demanded that China carry out structural reforms. However, Trump's demands and the means of imposing tariffs may cause economic losses to his supporters. While the Trump administration is conducting trade negotiations with China, how can it pressure China to complete the negotiations? How to convince American voters to support the Trump administration's China policy? After the U.S. and China reached a trade agreement, has the U.S. domestic perception and policy preference for China changed? 　　　　This article applies the two-level game theory proposed by Robert Putnam as the research approach of this article. The two-level game theory focuses on the observation of the interaction between the international level and the domestic level during international negotiations. The important concept of the two-level game theory is called "win-set". Negotiating countries will face a virtual "win-set" at both the international and domestic levels. When the "win-set" between negotiating countries overlaps, the negotiation will be reached. 　　This article uses the single-case study method and textual analysis as research methods. Collecting relevant texts to analyze the Trump administration’s trade negotiation with China. It also collects news on the US-China trade negotiation from "the New York Times Chinese" and conducts news framing analysis. Research has found that Trump and his administration are indeed trying to influence the "win-set" of the US-China trade negotiations at the international and domestic levels. At the international level, the Trump administration imposed additional tariffs on Chinese products as the main means to pressure China to compromise. At the domestic level, Trump personally made comments on the US-China trade negotiations through social media platform Twitter to defend his policies and consolidate supporters. The Trump administration influences domestic voters through news interviews, speeches, and related policies. Then, through the analysis of news reports and American academic research, after the U.S.-China trade negotiations, most American politicians, businessmen, scholars, and the general public have increased negative feelings about China and tend to adopt more competitive policies toward China.