- 學位論文
客戶獲取與流失觀點之競爭分析: VAR方法
Analyzing Market Competition Through the Lens of Competitors’ Customer Base Acquisition and Attrition: A VAR Approach
摘要
辨識競爭關係，是行銷人員進行競爭分析的第一個步驟。無論使用企業與競爭對手資源的相似性、透過消費者調查、抑或是透過經理人的認知分類成競爭者或非競爭者，存在著執行不易或是主觀認知的問題。如何運用動態的觀點進行客觀的競爭關係，一直是關鍵的議題。 本研究以有別於傳統競爭分析的方法，從客戶群基礎的角度切入，運用動態競爭理論與向量自回歸模型，分析競爭廠商間客戶群相互流入流出的動態關係。研究結果發現廠商間的客戶獲取與客戶流失呈現顯著的關係且競爭關係呈現不對稱性的現象。透過競爭廠商間客戶的獲取、客戶流失的強度與正負向的關係辨識競爭進行分析，研究發現廠商間的競爭關係是多元的，除了一對一的關係之外，也同時存在一對多、單向以及雙向等多種型態。 此研究提供一個新的觀點，透過研究多個廠商的客戶群基礎的流動，從而在這樣客戶流動的競爭動態中，界定「誰跟誰競爭」的競爭關係，進行辨識競爭者與競爭關係的洞察。
並列摘要
Identifying target competitors in the market, analyzing their influences, and responding properly to competitors’ actions are critical issues for marketers. Although the literature presents an array of related modeling efforts, it is interesting to note that no prior study has addressed such issues by looking at the dynamics of customer acquisition and attrition among competitors. This research thus proposes a systematic modeling framework to analyze competition from the angles of customer acquisition and customer attrition. Utilizing data of credit card marketers’ customer bases, this research develops a vector autoregressive model to examine changes in customer bases through the dynamic competition of firms. This analysis reveals some interesting patterns of the acquisition-attrition nexus in business competition. First, there appears to be a strong relationship between acquisition and attrition among most firms. This research suggests that due to the nature of the customer base dynamics, customer base movement can be obtained by considering customer acquisition and attrition as indicators of competition. Such analytics and data move beyond siloed customer base analytics approaches. Second, the acquisition-attrition nexus is not embedded in dyads. The significant effects are asymmetric, as both one-way and two-way competition co-exist in the market. Furthermore, the suggested models can effectively identify critical competitors by tracing the origin of one firm’s customer bases to another firm’s in subscription-based industries. This allows for a systematic exploration of a variety of customer bases and assists in capturing the complexity of competition. This study therefore offers a new approach to understanding market competition through the analysis of the interplay across competitors’ customer bases.