認知空間與信任程度於貝式選擇的影響

The Impact of Cognitive Capacity and Trust Level on Bayesian Updating

廖為謙(Wei-Chien Liao)

指導教授 ： 林明仁

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/經濟學研究所/碩士(2022年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU202201038

摘要

在過往決策理論或貧窮行為的文獻中已經發現理性疏忽對於決策上是有影響的，但對於理性疏忽是緣於信任度不足或是認知空間不足，以及其效果如何卻沒有深入的討論。在此研究中，我們除了測量受試者原始的信任程度、認知空間，並利用預測遊戲來做為對於理性決策的主要測量，還透過給予受試者對於信任不同立場的文章，操縱受試者的信任程度，且要求受試者記憶不同數量的數字來限制受試者的認知空間，以試驗信任與認知空間對於決策上的影響。結果顯示信任的操弄可以改善受試者原本產生的偏差，而認知空間的限制會降低認知能力對於決策的影響。以整體而言，原本的認知能力對於決策的效果是顯著且優於信任產生的效果，但是信任程度較好被操控以改善決策的偏差。

關鍵字

貝式選擇 ； 認知空間 ； 信任 ； 實驗 ； 理性疏忽

並列摘要

Past literature in decision theory or poverty behavior discussed the effect on decision making raised by rational inattention; however, seldom did they analyze whether rational inattention arises from lack of trust or cognitive capacity, and furthermore, how large the effect size is. In this research, we manipulate participants' trust levels by asking them to read different attitude articles and limiting their cognitive capacity by asking them to remember one or two numbers while making decisions. We use the prediction game as our main measurement of the rational decision to measure the size of the effect of different levels of trust and cognitive capacity. The results show trust treatment can counter the bias, and the cognitive burden will diminish the positive effect from the original cognitive level. Overall the innate cognitive capacity is larger and more prominent than the trust for preventing bias, but trust is easier manipulated to improve bias.

並列關鍵字

Bayesian Updating ； Cognitive Capacity ； Trust ； Experiment ； Rational Inattention

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