迷信效果與農地交易的實證分析

影響農地交易的因素眾多，翻閱以往的文獻大多分析農地的經濟生產條件，然而本研究嘗試從社會文化的角度出發，探討與農業相關的民間習俗迷信是否會影響農地交易。整理文獻後發現迷信具有許多形式且廣泛存在於不同文化中，而且可能潛在的影響人們的經濟活動與行為決策，因此訂定此研究方向。在臺灣社會中存在許多習俗與民間信仰，這些習俗多從早期社會的生活型態流傳至今，而本研究想深入了解農地交易活動中是否存在這些「迷信」的現象，並且考量與農地交易相連結的習俗後，將研究的主軸設定於探討農民曆與農曆鬼月的迷信對於農地交易的影響效果。文章的另一部份則透過回顧農地交易的影響因素，並運用二元固定效果模型控制其他變因後呈現出迷信的實證結果與影響。除了利用主要的迴歸模型估計迷信效果，本研究更深入探討迷信效果在城鄉分級尺度上的差異以及透過分量迴歸模型估計在不同條件下迷信對於農地交易項目的影響效果。本研究從實證結果發現農民曆的負面迷信和農曆鬼月的期間會使得全樣本中農地交易次數、農地平均交易單價和農地交易價值顯著低於正常日；若從城鄉分級的角度而言，農民曆迷信在偏遠鄉鎮和高齡化鄉鎮對於農地交易次數有負向效果，農曆鬼月迷信則在新興市鎮、傳統產業市鎮中對於農地交易次數有負向效果。除了使用普通最小平方法估計，本研究使用分量迴歸探討不同分量條件下，迷信對於農地交易項目的影響效果。在分量的結果中顯示農民曆迷信在高交易次數與高平均交易單價的估計結果中顯著，農曆鬼月則是在農地交易次數和農地交易價值的估計結果中有負向顯著影響。

關鍵字

迷信；農地交易；固定效果模型；分量迴歸法

並列摘要

There are many farmland transaction determinants, and most of the previous literatures have analyzed the economic and production factors. This study attempts to explore whether agricultural-related custom superstitions affect farmland transactions. After collecting literatures for this study, I found that superstitions are diversified and widely exist in different cultures, and it may potentially affect people's economic activities and behavioral decisions. In Taiwan, there are many customs and folk beliefs, and these customs have been passed down from the early society. This study aims to understand whether the "superstition" phenomena exists in farmland transactions. After considering the customs associated with farmland transactions, this study explores the influence of the superstitions of the lunar Chinese calendar and the lunar Ghost Month on farmland transactions. This study also controls for other variables using the two-way fixed effect model. In addition to using the regression model to estimate the effect of superstitions, I further explore the difference effects of superstitions between regions, and estimate the effect of superstitions on farmland transactions under different conditions through the quantile regression econometric model. In comparison with normal days, this study concludes that there are negative lunar Chinese calendar and lunar Ghost Month superstitions effects on farmland transactions. A decrease in farmland prices and the number of farmland transactions is found in inauspicious days. In “Remote Rural Counties” and “Aging Counties”, lunar Chinese calendar superstition has negative effects on farmland transaction times. On the other hand, in “Newly Emerging Counties” and “Conventional Industries Counties”, lunar Ghost Month superstition has negative effects on farmland transaction times. The quantile empirical results show that lunar Chinese calendar superstition has significant effects on high farmland transaction times and high unit price samples, and lunar Ghost Month superstition has significant effects on farmland transaction times and value.