- 學位論文
全球油輪運輸市場運價與中國油輪進口市場分析
Analysis of the freight rate of the global tanker transportation market and the Chinese oil tanker import market
摘要
回顧近10年來的油輪運輸市場，2018年達到了新低點，從大船東公司Norden公佈的2018年三季度財務報告顯示,中型油輪租金達到了近十年的新低；二手油輪資產價值也在不斷下降；國際公約中不斷強調的環保協議也不斷限制原油的提煉和生產。伴隨著主因全球經濟的不景氣以及復蘇期的需求弱勢，世界油輪運輸市場都表現出低迷的氛圍。噸位供應持續過剩，區域貿易遇到了各式的挑戰。運輸市場之外的船舶市場也同樣表現不佳，舊油輪拆除的同時，新油輪的建造訂單並沒有相應的提升，油輪市場整體表現為飽和以及一定的去存量現象。但在不佳的市場表現中，也展現出了一些新的機會。例如新技術的應用、油輪產業的整合。 在市場的震盪背景下，本文通過全球原油供需情況入手，在瞭解原油供需變化的基礎上對全球油輪航線運價和中國油輪進口市場進行了分析。本文旨在探討油輪運輸市場的運價特徵以及運輸市場未來發展的建議。 本文採用了比較分析法。比較了超大型油輪（VLCC）、蘇伊士型油輪（Suezmax）、阿芙拉型油輪（Aframax）、成品油運輸的部分運輸航線的運費變動差異。得出如下結論：1.油輪運輸市場會受到政治、氣候等宏觀因素的影響，也會受到石油價格等相關因素的影響。部分影響因素的影響效果具有延後性；2.油輪運輸市場本身是獨立的，價格變化具有自我調節機制。運價變動並不完全依賴於上述相關因素；3.油輪運輸市場運價變動較為劇烈；4. 油輪運輸市場會區分不同航線，不同船型，不同地區和不同油品，產生運價的差異。各個小運輸市場也具有獨立性。 本文比較了中國油輪進口市場和全球油輪運輸市場的運價變動，並比較了中國各船型進口市場情況，得到結論如下：1.油輪運輸市場是一個全球一體化的共同市場，同時這個市場的供需雙方均存在不均衡，該市場是一個非完全競爭市場；2. 中國作為石油進口大國，對超大型油輪的交易關注度還需要再提升；3.油輪運輸市場處在一個以固定市場為主，多邊市場不斷發展的過程中，市場中有時還是會出現新的競爭主體。 最後，本文對中國運輸市場發展提出以下建議：1.面對強勁波動市場善用FFA等運費衍生品；2.面對非完全競爭市場善於利用買方優勢；3.優化進口船隊結構，重視超大型油輪。
並列摘要
Looking back at the tanker transportation market in the past 10 years, it reached a new low in 2018. The financial report of the third quarter of 2018 announced by the big shipowner Norden showed that the medium-sized tanker rate has reached a 10-year low;and the value of second-hand tanker assets is also declining. Environmental agreements, which are constantly emphasized in international conventions, continue to limit the refining and production of crude oil. Along with the global economic downturn and the weak demand during the recovery period, the world oil tanker transportation market has shown a downturn. The supply of tonnage continues to be excessive and regional trade has encountered various challenges. The ship market outside the transportation market also performed poorly. At the same time that the old tankers were dismantled, the construction orders for the new tankers did not catch up with the decline.. The overall performance of the tanker market was saturated and certain destocking. Under such impoverished circumstances, however, some new opportunities can be identified. For example, the application of new technologies and the integration of the tanker industry. In the context of market volatility, this thesis starts with the global supply and demand of crude oil, and analyzes the freight rate of global tanker routes and the Chinese tanker import market on the basis of understanding the changes in supply and demand of crude oil. This article is intended to explore the characteristics of freight rates in the tanker transport market and recommendations for the future development of the transport market. This thesis uses a comparative analysis method. The difference in freight rates between some of the routes of VLCC, Suezmax, Aframax and refined oil transportation was compared. The conclusions are as follows: 1. The tanker transportation market will be affected by macro factors such as global politics and climate change, and will also be affected by relevant factors such as oil prices. The impact of those influencing factors has a delay effect; 2. In additional to above mentioned factors, the tanker transportation market is not perfectly competitive and has a self-adjusting mechanism for price changes. 3. The freight rate in the tanker transportation market changes drastically; 4. The oil tanker transportation market has a differentiation of freight rates on different routes, different ship types, different regions and different transportation oils. Each small transport market is also independent. This thesis compares the freight rate changes between China's oil tanker import market and the global tanker transport market, and compares the import market of various ship types in China. The conclusions are as follows: 1. The tanker transportation market is a global integrated market with imbalances between supply and demand. As a result, the market is a not perfectly competitive. 2. As a major oil importer, China needs to pay more attention to the trading of super-large tankers. 3. The tanker transportation market is dominated by a fixed market with continuous development of the multilateral markets and new competitive entities will sometimes appear in the market. Finally, this thesis puts forward the following suggestions for the development of China's transportation market: 1. To make good use of freight derivatives such as FFA in the face of strong volatility market; 2. To take advantage of the buyer's advantage in the face of non-competitive competition; 3. Optimize the structure of imported fleet and pay specialy attention to VLCC.