原物料波動對臺灣造紙業上市公司股價的影響

臺灣造紙業總製造成本中以直接原料所占比重最高，其比重近年來均超過六成以上，因此直接原物料中占比最大的國際紙漿、瓦楞芯紙、及廢紙等價格變化就值得探討了。因此購買原物料的美元匯率及製造所用的石油等波動因素，對臺灣造紙業上市公司的股價所造成的影響，也是此次研究的目的。本研究資料取自2008年1月1日至2018年12月31之週資料，並針對探討的變數進行資料敘述統計，以多元迴歸模型方法建立實證模型。針對歷經金融海嘯時期及新興市場造紙業成長時期，將資料日期拆解成三個部分去研究。本文實證結果顯示：1.三家公司皆有工紙及紙器的銷售產品，對於主要原物料的應用，以廢紙及瓦楞芯紙為重，掌握了原料及控制原料成本，就等於可以增加獲利。2.公司所銷售的重點紙種、各公司的抄紙技術，及對於採購有利紙種的原物料對策，已經成為公司獲利的重點。

關鍵字

原物料；國際紙漿；造紙業；股價；多元迴歸模型

並列摘要

In the total manufacturing costs of Taiwan’s paper industry, direct raw materials account for the highest ratio, with weights exceeding 60% in recent years. Therefore, the price fluctuations of international pulp, corrugated paper, and waste paper that account for the highest ratios among the direct raw materials are worth exploring. The impact of “fluctuation factors such as the US dollar exchange rate for raw materials purchases and the petroleum used in manufacturing” on the stock prices of Taiwan’s listed companies is also the objective of this research. The research data was obtained from the weekly data from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2018. Data descriptive statistics was conducted on the variables explored, and the empirical model was established using a multiple regression model. Targeting the time period of the financial tsunami and the period of growth of the paper industry in the emerging markets, the data periods were broken down into three parts for study. The empirical results show that 1. All the three companies sell paper and paper machine products. For the application of the main raw materials, waste paper and corrugated paper comprised the majority. The grasp of raw materials and the control of raw material costs have led to increased profitability; 2. The focused paper types sold by the companies, the papermaking technologies of the companies, and the strategy for purchasing favorable paper type-specific raw materials have become the companies’ keys to profitability.