以開放資料探討新冠疫情對臺北捷運旅運量之影響分析

COVID-19改變社會大眾之旅運行為，2021年六月北捷旅運量相較同年四月減少78%，臺北市政府決議參考運量降幅來調降五至七月公共場所租金75%，可知捷運旅運量可成為決策背景資料。本研究以2020年及2021年四至六月共5442萬筆北捷旅次開放資料為基礎，結合車站周邊特性，使用決策樹及地理資訊系統探討旅次受疫情影響多寡之因素。研究結果顯示（1）平日尖峰疫情下旅運量促跌因素為「旅行距離≧19.5或＜5.8公里」、「車站周邊青壯年人口比率愈低」，部分短程旅次被YouBike和私人運具取代；（2）平日尖峰疫情下旅運量抗跌因素為「車站周邊家戶年所得中位數≧90.9萬元」、「老年人口比率愈低之地區」、「車站周邊住宅區面積＞45%」；（3）假日疫情下旅運量促跌因素為「O/D其一或皆為觀光站點」、「車站周邊人口數愈多」；（4）假日疫情下旅運量抗跌因素為「O/D皆不為觀光站點」、「車站周邊家戶年所得中位數≧86.5萬元」、「幼年人口比率愈低且青壯年人口比率愈高之地區」；（5）依據旅運量影響因素將118車站分成4類，試提供3種精準且符合成本的租金減收方案；（6）小碧潭及新北投支線因旅運量低，建議可改由公車替代行駛。未來可考慮進行站間運量分析，並參照本研究的分析架構，探討2022年COVID-19對北捷旅運量影響，另外期盼相關單位釋出淡海輕軌旅運量資料，以更全面分析。

關鍵字

開放資料；新冠疫情；臺北捷運；決策樹；旅運量影響因素

並列摘要

The COVID-19 pandemic has changed the travel behavior of the general public. In June 2021, the ridership of Taipei MRT decreased by 78% compared with that in April of the same year. In response, Taipei City Government decided a 75% off on the rent of the municipal facilities operated by the third party from May to July. The MRT ridership was used in this case as the background information for decision-making. Various open data were collected, including 54.42 million Taipei MRT trips from April to June 2020 and 2021, along with the station surroundings' social-economic and land-use characteristics. This research applied the decision tree and geographic information system to explore the factors of ridership affected by the pandemic. The research results show that (1) on weekday peaks, the factors for the largest ridership reduction under the pandemic are "travel distance ≧ 19.5 or < 5.8 km" and "areas with a lower ratio of population between the age of 15 and 64". YouBike and private mode may also replace some short-distance MRT trips; (2) on weekday peaks, the factors for the least ridership reduction under the pandemic are "annual income of households around the station ≧ NT$909,000", "areas with a lower ratio of elderly population", and "ratio of residential areas around the station > 45%"; (3) on weekends, the factors for the largest ridership reduction under the pandemic are "either trip end is a tourist MRT station" and "areas with more population"; (4) on weekends, the factors for the least ridership reduction under the pandemic are "none of the trip ends is tourist-based MRT stations", "annual income of households around the station ≧ NT$865,000", and "areas with a lower ratio of population under the age of 15 and a higher ratio of population between the age of 15 and 64"; (5) 118 stations are divided into four categories according to the factors affecting the ridership, and three rent reduction schemes are provided; (6) Xiaobitan and Xinbeitou branch lines are recommended to be replaced by buses due to the low ridership. Investigation of inter-station passenger volumes under the pandemic is suggested for future study. The impact of COVID-19 on Taipei MRT ridership in 2022 can be discussed based on the analysis framework of this research. In addition, it is hoped that the authorities will release such open data as Danhai LRT ridership for a more comprehensive analysis.