- 學位論文
再生能源滲透率對電價的影響：澳洲價格案例視覺化分析
The impact of renewable energy penetration on electricity prices
摘要
巴黎協定的通過，各國紛紛針對再生能源進行投資。在此再能源轉型趨勢，究竟會產生哪些問題，頗值得我們去探討。澳洲是全世界擁有較多先進再生能源的國家，過去台灣卻對其研究較少，因此本研究針對澳洲國家電力市場(National Electricity Market, NEM)，一個橫跨五個地區的市場來進行分析，目的為探討再生能源滲透率增加對電價的影響，並探討相關影響及政策以做為台灣的借鏡。 本研究採用澳洲能源市場調度中心(Australian Energy Market Operator, AEMO)以及澳洲政府網站所提供的資料，透過Tableau資料視覺化軟體繪製儀表板等相關圖形，以全面的分析電力交易量、天然氣價格、太陽能發電量、風能發電量、水力發電量與天氣因素對批發電價的影響，再以迴歸分析做再次的驗證。 在儀表板分析中採用2022年10月16日至2023年10月14日的資料，可以看到再生能源滲透率增加，通常會促使電價下降，但天然氣價格會有抵銷最低成本調度原則(Merit order effect, MOE)的現象，產生再生能源滲透率增加電價卻沒有下降的情形。而迴歸分析結果，以整個NEM地區來看，除了太陽能以外，其他的變數包括風能發電量、水力發電量、電力交易量以及天然氣價格對電價皆有顯著的影響。以各地區來看，影響電價顯著的自變數不同，因為各地區主要發展的再生能源種類有差異，另外發現所有再生能源變數對電價下降皆有顯著降低效果的現象，僅出現於維多利亞(VIC)這一地區，原因為VIC地理位置位於中心，調度較方便，因此再生能源邊際成本為零的降價效果較不會因為能源調度上的花費而被抵銷。 整體研究結果顯示，再生能源滲透率越高對電價不一定有降價的效果，其中天然氣價格扮演非常重要的角色，若天然氣價格因國際市場而大幅飆漲，則原再生能源高滲透率可降低電價的效果將被高天然氣價格所抵銷，此現象深值得我國借鏡。
並列摘要
With the passage of the Paris Agreement, countries have invested in renewable energy. Exploring the potential problems arising from this renewable energy transformation trend is crucial. Australia is a country with advanced renewable energy in the world, but Taiwan has historically conducted limited research in this area. Therefore, this study analyzes the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM), a market connecting five regions. The purpose is to examine the impact of increasing renewable energy penetration on electricity prices and to explore related impacts and policies, providing insights applicable to Taiwan. This study utilizes data provided by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) and the Australian government website. Through Tableau data visualization software to draw dashboards and other related graphics to comprehensively analyze the impact of electricity trading volume, natural gas prices, solar power generation, wind power generation, hydropower generation and weather factors on wholesale electricity prices. This analysis is further validated through regression analysis. Using data from October 16, 2022 to October 14, 2023 in the dashboard analysis, illustrates that increased penetration of renewable energy typically results in lower electricity prices. However, the presence of higher natural gas prices tends to offset the Merit Order Effect (MOE), leading to scenarios where the increase in renewable energy penetration does not correspond to a decrease in electricity prices. Regression analysis results reveal that, apart from solar energy, other variables such as wind power generation, hydropower generation, power trading volume, and natural gas prices significantly impact electricity prices across the entire NEM region. Considering each region individually, the independent variables significantly affecting electricity prices differ due to the diverse primary types of developed renewable energy in each area. Notably, Victoria (VIC) is the only region to found that all renewable energy variables have a significant reducing effect on the decline of electricity prices. This phenomenon is attributed to VIC's central geographical location, enabling more convenient dispatching, thereby mitigating the potential offsetting effect of zero marginal cost in renewable energy due to dispatching expenses. The overall research results show that high renewable energy penetration rates do not necessarily have a price reduction effect on electricity prices. Natural gas prices play a very important role. If natural gas prices surge sharply due to the international market, the effect of reducing electricity price due to the high penetration rate of original renewable energy will be offset by the high price of natural gas. This observation serves as an essential lesson for our country to consider and learn from.