西夏建國戰略(西元982年-1048年)之研究-以薄富爾行動戰略架構分析

受限於史料紀錄的稀缺，西夏史在中國史研究中一直是非主流的研究對象，而其對中原政治、特別是北宋時期的中原局勢影響又是巨大的，西夏的行動與遼宋對峙的南北朝格局有牽一髮而動全身的密不可分之關係。而西夏的建國過程，特別是在李繼遷的草創時期，充滿了軍事行動的各種失敗，最後依然能獨立於一方，這在古代以軍事領域為決定性行動的主流決策思維模式中是相當少見的案例。這顯示，西夏建國的成功，包含了非軍事領域行動的要素。而這一關鍵要素，在過去的研究中，鮮少被提及與分析。當然，軍事行動的地位在古代依然重要；然而，李繼遷、李德明與李元昊，究竟採取了那些非軍事領域的行動，確立了西夏在中原國際地位上能與遼、宋兩大國相抗衡？這值得深入研究、學習與借鑑。本文嘗試利用薄富爾的行動戰略理論與分析架構，剖析西夏的政策、總體政治路線、總體戰略路線與戰略行動，以理解西夏行為者面對遼宋的權力對峙，在兩大國之間縱橫捭闔、夾縫求生的行動模式。同時，對李繼遷、李德明與李元昊三個時期進行互相比較，並且分析行為者的行動結果對後續時期的影響。最後，探討遼、宋與區域國家的反應，以評估西夏的行動是否達成目標。本研究發現，不管西夏行為者的行動執行過程是否導致行動的成敗，其採取行動的時機，皆大致正確。換言之，其行動成功機率的預期，都有外在客觀環境的要素支撐，這顯示其行為者對環境都有正確的認知並且做出正確的評估。同時，西夏行為者的行動靈活多變，能及時因環境因素的改變而改變自身行動，甚至是目標的設定。西夏行為者深刻認知到遼、宋在地緣政治上的權力真空地帶，並且積極、靈活地採取行動，是西夏的行動能勝過遼、宋兩國行為者與同等區域勢力的主因。

關鍵字

薄富爾；行動戰略；西夏

並列摘要

The study of Hsi-Hsia history in Chinese history study isn’t a mainstream of research object because of its few historical data. But its influence to the Zhongyuan politics, especially the Zhongyuan situation in Northern Song Dynasty period, is very important. The action of Hsi-Hsia and the whole structure of Northern and Southern dynasties during the Liao-Song conflict, have a inseparable relation. The entire constructing process of Hsi-Hsia, especially during the Li, Ji-Qian period, is full of military failure, but it could still survive. As a case of considering the military action as the main decision mode, it is truly an uncommon one. It shows that the Hsi-Hsia’s success, must include other factors in non-military field. These factors are rarely analyzed in the past studies. Indeed, in ancient times, the status of military action is still important. Nevertheless, what kind of non-military actions did Li, Ji-Qian, Li,De-Ming and Li,Yuan-Hao these three Hsi-Hsia’s actors make, allowing Hsi-Hsia to compete with Liao dynasty and Northern Song as well as establish its international relations status in Zhongyuan, is worth to research, develop and learn. In order to understand the mode of policy decisions of Hsi-Hsia actors facing the situation that the power confrontation between Liao dynasty and Northern Song Dynasty, this dissertation try to examine the view of Andre Beaufre’s “Strategy of Action” theory, including the overall strategic directions, and the strategic actions, and to analyze of Hsi-Hsia’s state constructing policy and Hsi-Hsia’s thorough political actions. Besides, by separately comparing these three Hsi-Hsia’s actors, this dissertation analyzes each of their influence to the next period. In the end, with an eye to evaluating whether or not Xi-Xia really achieved its goals, this dissertation investigates on reaction of Liao, Northern Song and other region political forces. This study discovers that no matter Hsi-Hsia actors’ actions are success or not, the timing of the actions that they made, is basically correct. On the other hand, it means its possibility of success is supported by external objective environment evidences. It shows that the actors were aware of the external environment and made the right decision on it. Meanwhile, actors’ actions are flexible and changeable, which could correspond to the change of the environment. Hsi-Hsia’s actors truly realized the the power vacuum range between Liao and Northern Song on geopolitics, and took the actions actively and flexibly. That is the main reason why the actions of Hsi-Hsia had a leading position with Liao, Northern Song and other same level political forces.