蔡英文時期的大陸政策與兩岸關係（2016-2020）

2016年總統大選，由民主進步黨提名的蔡英文得到56.12%選民支持，奪回了失去八年的執政權，也達到行政及立法均屬於同一政黨的「完全執政」局面，成為我國第十四任總統，亦是華人社會中第一位女性總統。蔡英文就任總統後，兩岸關係從此進入新的局面，亦走到一個面臨挑戰的交叉路口。不同於馬英九政府時期的軟性處理與「擱置爭議」、認同「九二共識」，以降低與中國大陸之間的衝突，強化兩岸交流；及簽署經貿協定，以強化臺灣競爭力。相反的蔡英文總統是在不提「九二共識」的兩岸關係基調，也無法提出可以讓對岸接受的說法或具體方案；及不諳「欲思其利，先慮其害，欲思其成，必慮其敗」的道理下，兩岸進入冷和、冷對抗的境地，已使我國經濟感受到寒風，官方協商大門關閉，兩岸兩會協商機制也停擺，我國官方白手套海基會亦僅剩服務功能，陸委會與國臺辦間的常態聯繫機制也不復見。本研究從不同的觀點，探討蔡英文的兩岸政策對於兩岸關係的影響，並透過解析蔡英文總統兩岸關係觀點的脈絡，探究其兩岸政策對於我國經濟、國際關係、外交困境及大陸對我軍事壓迫的情勢，以及了解中國大陸目前對我政策的調整與未來可能發展。

關鍵字

「蔡英文大陸政策」；「美中臺關係」；「九二共識」；「去中國化」

並列摘要

In the 2016 presidential election, Tsai Ing-wen, nominated by the Democratic Progressive Party, won the support of 56.12% of the voters, regained the loss of eight years of the ruling power, and reached the "completely ruling" situation where the executive and legislation belong to the same political party. She is the 14th president of our country, and she is also the first female president in Chinese society. After Tsai Ing-wen became president, cross-strait relations have since entered a new situation. It is different from the Ma Ying-jeou government's approval of the "1992 Consensus" to reduce conflicts with China, strengthen cross-strait exchanges, and sign economic and trade agreements to strengthen Taiwan's competitiveness. On the contrary, President Tsai Ing-wen can not forward an argument or specific plan that is acceptable by the opposite side without mentioning the cross-strait relationship keynote of the "1992 Consensus". The two sides of the strait have entered a cold confrontation, and our country's economy has suffered. Officials on both sides of the strait have interrupted consultations, the Straits Exchange Foundation has no use, and the normal communication between the Mainland Affairs Council and the Taiwan Affairs Office is no longer seen. This study explores the impact of Tsai Ing-wen’s cross-strait policies on cross-strait relations from different perspectives, analyzes its cross-strait policies for our country's economy, international relations, diplomatic dilemmas, and military oppression of China. In addition, it also attempts to understand China's policy adjustment and its possible future direction.