川普當選後金價、油價、美元指數
對美國三大股市的非線性影響

本研究以非線性平滑移轉模型探討國際重要財金指標：黃金價格、石油價格、美元指數對道瓊工業平均指數、NASDAQ指數、S&P500指數之影響關係。並以美元指數作為門檻變數，觀察美元指數在低於或高於各自門檻時，黃金價格、石油價格、美元指數的變動如何對美國三大股市產生影響。本研究發現，當美元指數遠高於門檻時，油價與美國三大股市皆無顯著關聯，在美元指數低於門檻時油價與美國三大股市皆呈現正相關。而金價在美元指數高於門檻時與美國三大股市接呈現正相關，而在美元指數低於門檻時，金價對美股的影響除了NASDAQ指數呈現負相關外其餘皆呈現正相關。而美元指數對美股的影響除了NASDAQ指數在美元指數遠高於門檻值時並無顯著關聯外，其餘狀況皆與美國三大股市呈現正相關。

關鍵字

美元指數；平滑移轉模型；美國三大股價指數

並列摘要

This study uses the nonlinear smooth transition model to explore the international important financial indicators: the impact of gold price, oil price, dollar index on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ index, S&P500 index. And using the US dollar index as a threshold variable, observe how the changes in the price of gold, oil, and the US dollar index affect the three major US stock markets when the US dollar index is below or above their respective thresholds. This study found that when the US dollar index is much higher than the threshold, the oil price has no significant correlation with the three major US stock markets. When the US dollar index is lower than the threshold, the oil price is positively correlated with the three major US stock markets. The price of gold is positively correlated with the three major US stock markets when the US dollar index is higher than the threshold. When the US dollar index is lower than the threshold, the impact of the gold price on the US stocks is positively correlated with the negative correlation of the NASDAQ index. The impact of the US dollar index on US stocks is not related to the three major US stock markets except for the NASDAQ index, which has no significant correlation when the US dollar index is much higher than the threshold.