台灣民有傳統零售市場之未來圖像

台灣傳統零售市場，對年輕一代來說，可能已經沒有太多的印象，甚至可能連前往傳統零售市場消費的經驗都不一定有。近十餘年來各種跡象顯示，傳統市場的攤商業者們對於未來，有越來越多的不安和恐懼，其主要憂慮為傳統市場消費者逐漸減少、消費力減弱、消費意識高漲等各項因素，使得傳統市場逐漸式微，讓台灣許多傳統市場的攤商業者們面臨著不創新、不改變就會落伍或消失的困境。對未來發展的因應之道，思考迫在眉睫。本文嘗試從未來學的角度，從不同面向進行綜合探討，透過歷年研究文獻瞭解、彙整與分析傳統市場(多數為公有傳統零售市場)對台灣社會的功能和歷年發展分析。在文獻的紀錄中，各界曾為傳統市場做過的努力、建議與改革有哪些，其過程、情況與結果，進而作為歸納本研究場域民有傳統零售市場未來圖像的潛在變項。透過田野調查實際瞭解對民有傳統零售市場的攤商及市場管理業者來說，哪些因素是其未來發展或轉型的困擾與困境，並透過未來學的因果層次分析法進行各層面的分析，探討其在各層次中展現的文化與世界觀，以及最深層的迷思。在多面向的分析與探討後，再以未來學的情境分析進行綜合歸納與推演，從而整理出民有傳統市場的未來圖像。

關鍵字

傳統市場；民有市場；未來圖像；未來學；情境分析；多層次因果分析

並列摘要

Traditional retail markets of Taiwan may not have much of an impression on the younger generation, and may not even have been there before. Over the past decade, there have been signs that the traditional market stallers are increasingly uneasy and afraid about the future, the main concern is that the traditional market consumers are gradually reducing, consuming capacity getting lower, awakening of consumer consciousness and so on, so force that the traditional market gradually fading. Many of Taiwan's traditional market stallers face the dilemma of falling behind or disappearing without innovation or change. It is urgent to think about the response to the future. This research attempts to make a comprehensive discussion from the perspective of Futures Studies, and through the literature over the years to understand, integrate and analyze the functions of the traditional retail market of Taiwan and its development history. In the past, what efforts, suggestions and reforms have been made for the traditional market, and its process, situation and results, and then as a potential variable to constructing the futures images. Through interview with stallers, we can actually understand what factors are the key points of the future development. The research adopts CLA, Scenario method to explore and analysis the futures images of private-run traditional retail market of Taiwan.