- 學位論文
臺灣肉品政策對豬肉價格之影響
The effect of Taiwan's meat policy on the price of pork
摘要
臺灣豬肉以往遭逢了些許政策與災情的外部衝擊，如口蹄疫與政府開放含萊克多巴胺豬肉進口，而這些衝擊是否對於臺灣豬肉價格造成影響，以及節慶與季節對於豬肉價格是否有著季節性的效果，是本文想探討的因素。 本研究的目的為以GARCH模型來分析豬肉價格受到哪些因素影響，並分析意外衝擊對於豬肉價格的波動性是否有著影響，而本文資料時間範圍為1996年1月至2021年3月之月資料。所有模型研究結果發現落後1、2期和10期的豬肉價格都顯著影響當期的豬肉價格，當期與落後一期之豬肉成交量上升顯著影響豬肉價格下降，豬肉價格也有著季節性的變化；而其他變數如節慶、政策、災情相關的變數對豬肉價格也有顯著影響，但在各模型表現出的結果各有不同。 變異數方程式的估計結果也顯示出意外衝擊可能對於波動有著影響。以此推論或許在豬肉價格中一開始的意外衝擊，雖有影響到價格但在隨著時間推移，意外衝擊對於價格波動的影響似乎隨著時間而遞減。
並列摘要
Taiwan’s pork industry has been impacted by many policies and disasters, such as foot-and-mouth disease and Taiwan government lifts a ban on the import of pork containing ractopamine. These shocks and whether festivals and seasons have an impact on the price of pork in Taiwan are the factors that this article wants to explore. The purpose of this research is to use the GARCH model to analyze which factors affect the price of pork, and analyzes whether unexpected shocks have an impact on the volatility of the price of pork. The data time range of this study is the monthly data from January 1996 to March 2021.The study found that the current price of pork was significantly affected by its lags 1, 2 and 10. There is a significant reverse relationship between the current and previous transaction volume of pork and its price, the price of pork is affected by seasonal factors. Dummy variables related to policies and disasters also have a significant impact on the price of pork, but the results shown in each model are different. The estimation results of the variance equation also show that unexpected shocks may have an impact on volatilities. This study concludes that perhaps the initial unexpected shock in pork prices may affect the price, but the impact of the shock on price fluctuations seems to diminish with time.