人民幣匯率變動與中美貿易戰對中國大陸房地產影響之研究

房地產業在國家經濟中具有著重要的地位與作用，它的興衰與民生經濟亦是非常密切的聯繫，中國大陸在80年代改革開放後，在市場經濟的影響，以及城市功能的轉變下，農村遷移至城市的就業人口及居住人口規模迅速成長，演變至今產生了所謂的房地產市場。近年來，美國為首的西方國家數次通過政府喊話，意圖使人民幣匯率升值。美國認為全球經濟失衡，尤其是美國對外貿易的失衡，原因是人民幣兌美元的匯率被低估。中國大陸因通過政府制定的低匯率，促進了國內商品和服務的出口，造成美國經濟和社會問題。自2008年起，人民幣匯率的升值和房地產價格的高漲成為中國大陸經濟領域的兩項熱點話題。房地產的發展直接影響著經濟是否健康發展，亦關係到人民的生活福利和水平，隨著中國大陸人民幣匯率波動擴大，房地產價格持續高漲，房地產價格不斷攀升可能伴隨著出現房地產泡沫化及資產泡沫，中國大陸人民銀行對於房地產市場的調控中動用例如房貸優惠利率政策、不動產貸款抵押管制等，但效果均有限。在2008年至2014年期間，由於人民幣長期處於升值階段，成為在國際上金融套利與外幣投資的熱門首選，直到2015年人民幣貶值趨勢確立後，外商投資及國際熱錢對人民幣投資大幅削減。當前的緊張局勢對全球貿易與投資信心造成不利影響，其解決方式也勢必影響未來多年之全球貿易體系，其影響可能是有利亦或不利。 2019年6月中美雙方決定恢復貿易談判，但已實施的關稅正阻礙著全球貿易，中美加徵關稅產生的未來不確定性導致全球貿易與工業生產放緩，對於投資和商業行為皆產生影響。由於中美貿易戰造成人民幣匯率再度貶值，而人民幣匯率升值對房地產市場循環卻有帶頭作用，有助房價推升，是影響房地產價格上漲原因之一。惟，中國大陸房地產未來趨勢最終還是決定在國內二、三線城市去化庫存及整體市場實際之供需。

關鍵字

房地產市場；人民幣匯率；房地產泡沫化；外商投資；中美貿易戰

並列摘要

The real estate market holds an essential position for the economics in each country. Its rise and fall also strongly affect the livelihood and the economic policy. In 1980s, after reform and opening up in Mainland China, with the effect of market economic and transformation of the city function, the employed and the residence population, who moved from rural area to the city, increased rapidly. In the recent years, the US and other western countries intend to appreciate the CNY exchange rate through the official announcement. The US think the reason that brings out the imbalance of global economic situation, especially the imbalance of US export trade, is the underestimation of the exchange rate between CNY and USD. Since the Mainland China passes the law of lower exchange rate to promote the outbound of its products and service, which create the economic and society issue in the US. since 2008, the CNY exchange rate raised and the higher price of the real estate become two main topics in the China’s economic field. The development of real estate market has direct impact of whether the economic grow healthily, and also related to people’s welfare and the standard of living. By following the bigger oscillation of CNY exchange rate, the price of real estate keeps increasing. However, this situation probably goes with the burst of real estate and asset bubbles. The People’s Bank of China also using some policy to control this situation, for example, the policy of preferential rate mortgage or the control of real estate mortgage loan, but eventually the outcome is limited. Between 2008 and 2014, since the CNY in the appreciation stage for a long time, so it becomes the first choice of arbitrage and foreign currency investment. Until the foreign company and international hot money confirm that the devaluation trend of CNY currency, the investment decreased greatly. The current international situation is intense and also making disadvantages for global trade and weaker the confidence to do the investments. The solution may also affect the global trade system that built for many years, which might cause positive or negative result. On June 2019, Mainland China and the US decide to open the trade negotiates; however, the implemented tariff is obstructing the global trade. The US and the Mainland China impose the tariff, which make uncertain situation, slower down the global trade speed and the industrial production. This uncertain situation makes the impact of investment and the business procedure. Since the US-China trade war, the CNY exchange rate devaluated again, which also result in the different price changes in real estate market. The US-China trade war makes the devaluation of CNY exchange rate. However, the appreciation of CNY exchange rate is actually leading the real estate market, and helping to raise the house price. Therefore, one of the reasons that makes house price higher is the appreciation of CNY exchange rate. However, the future trend of the real estate market still decided by the inventory-clearance sale of second-tier or third-tier cities, and the real supply, demand in the market finally.