薪資對房價指數受政府房貸補助戶數不同之差異影響分析

本研究以非線性平滑移轉模型探討薪資、五大行庫貸款利率、消費者物價指數與加權股價指數對全國房價指數之影響關係。並以受政府房貸補助戶數分別為政府補助戶數-自購住宅貸款利息補貼及政府補助戶數-青年安心成家作為門檻變數，觀察補助戶數在低於或高於各自門檻時，薪資及各解釋變數之變動如何對全國房價指數產生影響。另外，本研究亦發現在政府補助戶數-自購住宅貸款利息補貼做為門檻變數時，不管是工業薪資、服務業薪資或兩薪資平均在門檻上下加權股價指數與房價指數皆成顯著正相關，顯示台灣近幾年股市與房市有財富效果。而在政府補助戶數-青年安心成家作為門檻變數時，在各薪資與門檻上下，消費者物價指數與房價指數皆成顯著正相關，顯示在台灣20至40歲年齡層買房較受物價影響。

關鍵字

政府房貸補助戶數；薪資；房價指數；平滑移轉模型

並列摘要

This thesis uses the non-linear smooth transition model to explore the relationship between the salary, consumer price index, home loan interest rate, stock price index on house price index in Nationwide respectively. Taking the government subsidy as a threshold variable to observe how the changes in salary, consumer price index, home loan interest rate, stock price index variables affect house price index of Nationwide when government subsidy above or below their respective threshold. In addition, the study also finds the impact of the stock price index on the house price index is significantly positive correlation between industrial salary and service industry salary when government subsidy of self-purchased residential loan interest subsidy above and below their respective threshold. It shows Taiwan's stock market and housing market have wealth effects in recent years. On the other hand, the impact of the consumer price index on the house price index is significantly positive correlation between industrial salary and service industry salary when government subsidy of Youth’s Housing Subsidy above and below their respective threshold. It shows that in Taiwan buying a house is much affected by consumer price index in the 20-40 age group in Taiwan.