美中貿易戰對中國農糧進口的影響：以黃小玉為例

2017年中國的進出口總額約為 4.1 兆美元，占全球進出口比重約為 10% 左右，在全球貨物貿易中的排名為第一位，並且連續 9 年保持全球貨物貿易第一大出口國。由此可見中國的經濟改革成就耀眼，而中美的貿易往來乃是目前最引人注目的雙邊關係，兩國合則兩利，分則兩害， 2018 年開始的風波便很好的詮釋這點。 2018年，中美貿易戰爆發，中國農糧進口因貿易戰的戰火受到影響。本研究旨在了解中美貿易戰後，中國進口的農糧產品受到何種影響，因此做為貿易戰兩造的中國及美國都屬於本研究的研究範圍。而中國若想彌補從美國減少的商品缺口，勢必得由他國增加進口，因此再加入中國農糧進口的其他國家作為研究對象，在中國農糧的部分則是挑選人稱「黃小玉」的黃豆、小麥以及玉米作為研究標的。本研究首先就中國的貿易政策進行全面的回顧與梳理；再就美國對中國所採取的貿易政策，特別是在中國加入 WTO 過渡期限結束後對中國貿易政策所做的調整及其實施的情形進行了解，最後再對中國農產品貿易影響因素進行分析，再透過國際貿易中心取得數據，並利用統計分析中成對樣本 t 檢定進行統計分析。從統計結果我們可以發現，中國對美國的黃豆依賴性高，即便在貿易戰剛爆發時能削減一些進口量，但隨後的需求缺口，還是需要由美國補上，另一方面，我們從統計結果得知，平均而言與貿易戰前進口的量並沒有更多，我們認為其他國家的黃豆供給可能並不足以支撐中國的黃豆需求，這也是為甚麼中國在成本大增的情況下還是需要向美國購買黃豆。有別於黃豆，在小麥與玉米的部分，美國並非屬於中國進口的龍頭地位，我們也在研究中考量了當中國減少由美國進口的農產品時，中國是否由其他國家補足這些減少的部分，而我們得到了一些有趣的結果。以小麥為例，從統計結果來看，平均而言中國從其他國家進口的小麥量並沒有顯著增加，其中的原因可能是中國本身就有小麥的栽種，又或者是中國對小麥的需求量相較於黃豆而言並沒有那麼大，也因此不需要額外的大量進口小麥。最後玉米的部分，中國在貿易戰開打後，又碰巧碰上非洲豬瘟的爆發，因此中國大肆撲殺豬隻，使豬隻飼料的玉米需求量下降。

關鍵字

中美貿易戰；國際貿易；黃豆；小麥；玉米

並列摘要

In 2017, China's total import and export volume was approximately US$4.1 trillion, accounting for about 10% of global imports and exports. It ranked first in global cargo trade and remained the largest exporter of global cargo trade for nine consecutive yea rs. This shows that China's economic reform achievements are dazzling, and China US trade is currently the most striking bilateral relationship. The cooperation between the two countries is beneficial to each other, and the two are divided into two harms. The storm that began in 2018 is a good interpretation of this. In 2018, the US-China trade war broke out, and China's agricultural imports were affected by the trade war. The purpose of this study is to understand the impact of China's imports of agricultural and food products after the US China trade war. Therefore, China and the United States, both of which are trade wars, fall within the scope of this study. It is bound to increase imports from other countries, so join again Other countries that import China’s agricultural grains we re targeted for research. In China’s agricultural grains, soybeans, wheat, and corn known as “Huang Xiaoyu” were chosen as research targets. This study first conducts a comprehensive review and review of China’s trade policy; then it conducts a review of the US trade policy adopted by China, especially the adjustment and implementation of China’s trade policy after the transition period for China’s WTO accession. Understand, and analyze the influencing factors of China's agricultural products trade, and then obtain the data through the International Trade Center, and use the statistical analysis of the paired sample t test for statistical analysis. From the statistical results, we can find that China's dependence on the US soybeans is high. Even if it can cut some imports when the trade war broke out, the subsequent demand gap still needs to be filled by the US. On the other hand, we It is learned that on average, there is not much more imported than before the trade war. We believe that the supply of soybeans from other countries may not be sufficient to support China’s soybean demand, which is why China still needs to send to the United States in the case of a large increase in costs. Buy soybeans. Unlike soybeans, in the wheat and corn parts, the United States is not the leading position of China’s imports. We have also considered whether China will make up for these reductions when China reduces agricultural products imported from the United States. We got some interesting results. Taking wheat as an example, from the statistical results, on average, China’s imports of wheat from other countries have not increased significantly. The reason may be that China has its own wheat cultivation, or China’s demand for wheat is similar. Compared with soybeans, it is not so big, so there is no need to import a large amount of wheat. As for the last corn part, after the trade war started, China happened to encounter the outbreak of African swine fever. Therefore, China slaughtered pigs vigorously and reduced the corn demand for pig feed.