建構臺日安全合作關係—以西南群島防衛為例

以2021年中國進行圍臺軍演其中5枚飛彈落入日本專屬經濟海域，引起日本高度關注作為研究背景。同樣前日本首相安倍晉三在《新時代台日關係》為題的演講中提出「臺灣有事等於日本有事，也是日美同盟有事」之概念，可一探日本與臺灣緊密的關聯性。因此本研究主要探討日本在西南群島的防衛態勢及臺灣有事之關聯性，並從可能的情境中群找出未來臺日合作的潛在問題及可能性。本文先透過了解日本周遭的安全保障環境變化，如中國近年的於東海、南海的軍事擴張及臺海衝突等進行探討。再來以日本與周邊國家的互動，如中國、美國、臺灣、菲律賓等國的外交關係及政策作為背景，探討日本防衛政策的變化。最後再以日本方智庫針對臺海局勢擬定之兵推，尋找日本與臺灣間可能遭遇到的困境及合作模式。研究中可以發現，日本的防衛政策因周邊安全保障的環境變化而有所改變。日本在近年內除了積極修訂相關法律、官方文件及強化與盟國間互動外，自衛隊也依環境的變化下，有了在結構上及戰略上的變更。不過從情境模擬中，依然可以看出日本在面對新型態安全威脅下，尚未擁有足夠的法源依據及相關架構來面對。而面臨外交上的困境，即使日本意識到臺海衝突發生時對日本可能造成之衝擊，日臺間依然無法建立正式交流管道。因此日臺雙方應持續透過現有的民間交流機制及各層級政府單位的合作、交流管道來保持雙方互動。在平時可了解對方想法及行為，有事時擴大為正式的合作管道達成無縫接軌的合作模式。

關鍵字

臺灣有事；日本安全保障政策；西南群島；自衛隊

並列摘要

Starting with the Chinese military exercise around Taiwan island in 2021, five missiles d ropped at the Japanese EEZ made Japanese officials highly focused on it. Also, the concept of “Taiwan Contingency is Japan Contingency” rose after former Japanese PM Abe Shinzo made a s peech on Taiwan-Japan relations. The rise of this concept showed how closed Japan and Taiwan are. Therefore, this research will focus on the Japanese defense transition at the Nansei Isl ands and its relation to the Taiwan Contingency. Also, find out the chances and problems of T aiwan-Japan cooperation in future scenarios. Through learning security environments change around Japan, for example, Chinese military expansion in the East and South China Sea, high tension around the Taiwan Strait, and so on. By understanding Japanese foreign policies, which are also influenced by its defense strategi es, through Japanese interactions with other states, such as China, the Philippines, and Taiw an, Lastly, by using scenarios written by several Japanese think tanks and scholars, we can f ind the possible ways of Taiwan-Japan cooperation and difficulties. According to this study, Japanese defense policies were changed due to the changing secur ity environment. Also, it could be observed that Japan has started to revise its relative law s and official papers and enhance its relations with its allies. JSDF even changed its struct ures and established new troops to meet the new security threats. Even though its current str ucture of defense still does not provide it with enough power to cover all kinds of scenario s, Besides, Japan could not establish an official communication channel with Taiwan due to it s foreign policy. Therefore, what Taiwan and Japan could do for now is to enlarge their private communicati ons and establish possible seamless communication for contingencies.