- 學位論文
美國調停《受難日協議》與《亞伯拉罕協定》之 比較研究
Large-State Mediation: US Mediations in Good Friday Agreement and Abraham Accords
摘要
自英格蘭統治愛爾蘭以來，大量的新教徒移民到愛爾蘭開墾。與當地的愛爾蘭天主教徒長期因不同族群、文化及宗教而衝突分裂。日後因工業革命，兩族的經濟、社會、政治差距逐漸明顯。在政治上，天主教徒希望北愛爾蘭能與愛爾蘭共和國統一；新教徒恰恰相反，他們希望保持現狀，使北愛蘭留在英國。在1968年，天主教徒因爭取平等的人權而遊行，爆發武裝衝突，越演越烈，導致愛爾蘭長達三十多年的對峙及衝突。此外，愛爾蘭共和軍為爭取更多支持者長期武裝活動，造成前所未有的死傷及損失。至於阿拉伯大公國及巴林等海灣國，因支持巴勒斯坦建國，長期與以色列保持低調關係。若不是伊蘭及土耳其的崛起，加上美國政策重心轉移，海灣國意識到政權受到威脅，也不會輕易改軒易轍，傾向與以色列建立新夥伴關係。本論文將著重在美國調停北愛爾蘭及阿拉伯大公國、巴林與以色列的關係正常化。美國身為大國調停經驗多、資源豐富，影響力深遠，然而，未必每場調停都成功，卻能在北愛爾蘭及阿拉伯大公國、巴林與以色列成功調停，使衝突雙方停止對立或衝突，促進和平與合作。本研究嘗試從Jacob Bercovitch 及Allison Houston的國際調停理論基礎探討美國調停這兩個案例的衝突原因、調停動機及彼此間的關係、衝突本身的性質，調停者介入動機、策略、與衝突國關係、調停過程及調停結果，進而來探討其調停成效。另本論文將進行比較、找出其共同點及異同點。其中，亦將研討其時間及公共輿論面向對這兩個案例所引生的外交政策影響力。最後結論，將提出本論文之研究及比較後的發現，補充Jacob Bercovitch 及Allison Houston的國際調停理論，盼日對於國際調停有所貢獻。
並列摘要
With the British rule, English and Scottish immigrants settled in Ireland. In times of riots, the English monarchs also replaced the Irish and owners with new settlers causing areas divided either by majority of English Protestants or minority of Irish Catholics. The situation created two societies different in ethnics, culture and religion. With the industrial revolution, the two bands were gradually differentiated by their economic and social status. Besides, two bands held different political views. The Protestants claimed the Northern Ireland to remain in the UK while the Catholics supported the reunion of two Irelands. When the Catholics went into protests for their civil rights in 1968, the conflict between the two societies turned into a chaotic situation called the Troubles. Talking about the UAE/Bahrain with Israel, they were never at hot wars, however, they did not establish any official relation with Israel to support the Palestinian cause. This dissertation is aimed to apply the international mediation concepts of Jacob Bercovitch and Allison Houston to analyze the effectiveness of the US mediation in Northern Ireland conflict and the normalization of the UAE/ Bahrain with Israel. This research data will analyze the nature of the disputing parties, the mediator, the dispute itself, the mediation process and the mediation outcome. Additionally, the two cases will be compared and find their similarities and differences. Other themes of this dissertation include the time and public opinion dimensions that show its influence before, during and after mediation. To conclude, new major findings will be discussed to analyze the effectiveness of the mediation and finally add some suggestions to Bercovitch and Houston’s theory in hope to contribute to the prevention or management of the future conflict.