- 學位論文
典範移轉之新產業聚現歷程理論建構-以美國電動車產業為例
Theorizing the Emergence of New Industry Under Paradigm Shift : The Case of U.S. EV Industry
摘要
新產業的興起對各國的經濟表現至關重要，其原因在於隨著創新科技的系統化發展，創造了新的產業、開創了新的市場、產生了新的工作機會、提高了經濟成長率、甚而引起了產業的典範轉移。在此情況下，若舊產業典範無法順利轉型或過渡到新典範，則舊產業將面臨消退、產品失去市場、供應鏈萎縮、人才流失，甚至企業倒閉與失業率攀升等情形，嚴重衝擊社會國家的發展。因此，有關新產業如何興起的議題，不論是實務上或是研究上，都有其非常重要的意義。然而，這議題的理論理解與實務推動上，到目前為止，仍然是問題多於解答，也缺乏一個整體性的理論架構，做為相關構思的參考。 在學術理論上，新產業發展理論屬於中觀層級 (meso level) 之研究，過往主要有二種學派，各自基於不同觀點來探討產業動態或體系生成：第一，是科技社會學，強調產業變遷是一種社會過渡理論，其中，社會技術途徑取向理論（如：Geels, 2002, 2004; Geels and Schot, 2007; Hekkert et al., 2007等）主要探討激進式創新進入社會體制之多層級架構，以及演進過程中的重要因素（如：知識學習與市場形成等）。不過，此學派並非聚焦產業層級，亦非探討新產業形成機制，並且對推進歷程與動態影響因子的循環與篩選等，都缺乏深入的探討。第二，是基於經濟學的產業生命週期理論（如：Klepper, 1997, 2013; Dinlersoz 與 MacDonald, 2009等），此學派主要是關心產業整體發展的模式，藉由廠商進入與退出的動態以區隔出產業發展的階段性，但未能針對新產業早期萌芽階段的情形深入研究；另一經濟演化理論（如：Dosi, 1982; Perez, 1983, 2009等），此學派的理論著重於探討技術改變的軌跡，並進一步探討創新群集產業接續發生以促進新產業形成的現象，然而，此學派並未探討科技改變到形成新產業的動態過程；此外，前述學派都忽略了「網絡結構」與「集體行動」在新產業聚現中所可能扮演的角色。緣此，本論文研究的目的，即希望對於新產業聚現的演變歷程、動態內涵、與網絡結構等，進行有系統的、整體性的探討。 在研究方法上，由於新產業聚現的過程往往歷時久遠，難以藉由單一研究方法概括之，因此，本研究採用混合研究法（Forbes and Kirsch, 2011）。此外，電動車產業相較於傳統的汽車業而言，明顯具有「典範轉移」的情形，而且，美國又是電動車產業早期發展上最重要的國家，因此，本研究選擇美國的電動車產業為主要的研究對象。本研究蒐集與分析資料的方法，包括：文本內容之論述分析、專利資料量化分析與專家訪談。在文本論述內容分析方面，本研究蒐集1960年至2019年間美國國會與美國聯邦貿易委員會舉行之「聽證會紀錄」、美國聯邦政府「科技計畫與評估報告」等「歷史檔案資料」與重要的文獻資料。從中萃取出重要事件，並進行內容之論述分析。事實上，這部份的資料包含了很多電動車業者關鍵人士與美國政府官員及國會議員的對話，這些對話對於電動車產業早期發展的理解，提供了非常重要的參考價值；在專利資料量化分析方面，本研究以電動車發展的關鍵零組件-鋰電池為對象，蒐集1976年至2015年期間相關的美國專利進行資料分析，以與文本分析資料交互參照。此外，在本論文研究期間，作者亦多次與汽車及電動車產業專家進行訪談，請他們針對本研究之設計、資料解讀的正確性與結果的詮釋給予一些建議。 透過相關學理的結合與研究結果的分析，本研究得到了以下的主要結論： 第一， 新產業聚現的歷程具有其明顯的階段性與關鍵篩選機制。 本研究發現，新產業聚現的過程會包含初始階段、主導技術類別形成階段、主導產業體系形成階段及主導發展模式形成階段等主要階段。各階段皆有其初始狀態與誘發事件(包括如外部因素與內部因素)，並且各有其「產業過渡循環」機制。透過此機制的運作得以發展出新產業往前推動的動能，過渡循環完成得越具體，則新產業往前推動的力道也越大。 第二， 新產業聚現的過程中，各階段會透過「產業過渡循環」內關鍵活動的篩選與能量累積，而得以向下一個階段推進。 本研究發現，新產業聚現過程中各階段的「產業過渡階段」內關鍵活動主要包括：「知識創造」、「組織商業化」、「賦權與授權」、與「資源分配」等四項。各階段在受到誘發事件啟動後，相關參與者會透過此四項活動的運作、更新、篩選與循環，而影響新產業的發展方向與推進動能。通過此過渡循環與篩選機制者，得以進入下一個階段，未通過者，則在這波產業振盪 (shake-out)下退出。 第三， 新產業聚現的過程中，各階段的相關參與者會透過關鍵活動的循環篩選與資訊的不斷釐清，而得以找到更明確的市場機會。 新產業聚現的過程中，有關新技術、新產品、新原物料、新產業輪廓等相關的資訊，會有機會逐步釐清，而使得相關參與者更能明確找到新市場的切入機會。本研究發現，新產業在「主導技術類別」確定後，會開啟製造業廠商進入市場的機會。而在「主導產業體系」確定後，則會開啟周邊產業（如：設備製造業、軟體業等）進入市場的機會。至於「主導商業發展模式」確定後，則會開啟服務業廠商進入市場的機會，此時，相關參與者會更加留意與消費者的溝通，並加快對市場的滲透速度。 第四， 新產業聚現的過程中，各階段有其不同的主要網絡成員與實踐場域。 本研究發現，新產業聚現過程中的起始階段，往往是先由公部門為主負責有關示範場域的起頭與運作；而在主導技術類別形成階段時，則可以發現是由公私合作夥伴型態在主導專業市場；到了主導產業體系形成階段，則可以看到擴大型公私合作夥伴主導產業發展的型態，也會看到他們開始進入地方與社區並參與基礎環境的建設；最後到了主導發展模式形成階段，則會發現私部門採取快速集體行動(如結盟、合作、合資、購併)進而開啟新一輪的創新群集與產業競爭階段。 本論文最後也進一步闡述本研究的學術貢獻、實務意涵與後續研究建議。
並列摘要
The rise of new industries is crucial to the country’s economic performance. The reason is that with the systematic development of innovative technologies, new products, new markets and new employment opportunities will be created, leading to high economic growth rates and new industrial paradigm shifts. In this case, if the old industrial paradigm cannot be transferred to the new paradigm, it may face decline, lose the market, shrink the supply chain, lose talent or even close business. Therefore, the rise of emerging industries is crucial in practice and theory. However, so far, the understanding of this problem is limited, and there are still many problems to be solved. Therefore, it is necessary to provide an overall theoretical framework for reference. In theory, the research related to the rise of emerging industries is conducted from a meso-level perspective. There are two theoretical viewpoints related to the emergence of industrial power or new systems, but they are basically viewed from a macro perspective. The first is the industrial life cycle theory based on economics (such as: Klepper, 1997, 2013; Dinlersoz & MacDonald, 2009, etc.). They mainly concern about the development model of the industry, however, failed to conduct in-depth research on the early embryonic stage of new industries. Another theory of economic evolution (such as: Dosi, 1982; Perez, 1983, 2009, etc.) focuses on exploring the trajectory of technological change and the phenomenon of innovation cluster industries which leading to the formation of new industries. However, this school did not discuss the dynamic process of technological change to the formation of new industries. The second is Science, Technology, and Society (STSc), which emphasizes that industrial change is a theory of social transformation, which includes the development of a multi-level framework for socio-technical approach to describe the transition process of radical innovation from a niche to a regime (e.g. Geels, 2002, 2004; Geels and Schot, 2007, etc.). Follow-up researchers discuss the factors that affect the transitional process (such as knowledge, learning, market formation, etc.). (e.g. Hekkert et al., 2007, etc.). However, this theoretical viewpoint of STSc lacks a response to the theory originated, nor can it conduct a more in-depth discussion of transition and selection mechanisms. In addition, the aforementioned schools ignored the roles of "social network" and "collective action" in the emergence of new industries. For this reason, the purpose of this study is to develop a holistic framework of theory on the dynamism, connotation, and network structure of the emergence of new industries. In terms of research methods, the development of an emerging industry is long, complex, extensive, and vague, not easily to be summarized by a single research method, so this study adopts a mix-method approach (Forbes and Kirsch, 2011) by using the case, electric vehicle (EV) industry in the United States. The EV industry obviously is encountered "paradigm-shift" situation while comparing with the ICE automobile industry, moreover, the United States is the eariliest country trying to develop the EV industry. The data collection and analysis methods in this study include discourse analysis, quantitative analysis of patent data, and expert interviews and all of the results are integrated to deliver the conclusion. In terms of discourse analysis, this research collected EV related documents such as committee hearings of the U.S. Congress, federal R&D project and evaluation reports and historical archives from 1960 to 2019, then extracted major critical incidents to analyze the context and content. In fact, these historical archives contain critical dialogues between EV interests’ group, US government officials and members of Congress, and provide valuable reference for the understanding of the early stage of the electric vehicle industry. In terms of quantitative analysis of patent data, this study focuses on lithium batteries, a key component of EV industry, and collected relevant U.S. patents from 1976 to 2015 for cross-reference with the results of discourse analysis. In addition, the author has also conducted many expert interviews in this field, searching for advices on the research design, the accuracy of data and the interpretation of results. This research has achieved the following main results via the combination with related theories and case study: First of all, in the process of emerging industries, there are obvious stages and key selection mechanisms. According to the findings, there are four stages in the emerging process, namely the Initial Stage (I-Stage), the Dominant Technology Category stage (C-stage), the Dominant Industry Regime stage (R-stage) and the Dominant Industrial Logics stage (L-stage). According to the initial state and the inducing events at each stage, several successive industrial transformation cycles (Cycle) will be stimulated. Through the operation of this mechanism, the development momentum of new industries can be developed. The more concrete the transition cycle is completed, the greater the power to push the new industry forward. Second, in the process of emerging industries, each stage will advance to the next stage through the accumulation of energy and the screening of key activities in the "Industrial Transition Cycle". According to the findings, there are four major activities in the "industrial transition cycle" mainly consists of "knowledge creation", "organization commercialization", "empowerment and authorization", and "resource allocation". These major activities are stimulated by the inducing events; the participants will influence the development direction and momentum of the new industry through the operation, renewal, screening and circulation of these four activities. Those who pass this transitional cycle and screening mechanism will be able to enter the next stage, and those who fail will withdraw under this wave of industrial shaking. Third, in the process of emerging industries, relevant participants at all stages will be able to find clearer market opportunities through continuous clarification of information by the cyclic screening of key activities. In the process of the emergence of new industries, relevant information about new technologies, new products, new equipment, new industrial outlines will be gradually clarified, so that relevant participants can more clearly find the opportunities to enter the new markets. According to the findings of this research, a new industry will open up opportunities for manufacturers to enter the market after the C-stage is determined. After the R-stage is determined, it will open up opportunities for peripheral industries (such as equipment manufacturing, software industry, etc.) to enter the market. As for the L-stage is determined, it will open up opportunities for service industry manufacturers to enter the market. At this time, relevant participants will pay more attention to communication with consumers and accelerate their penetration of the market. Fourth, in the process of emerging industries, each stage has specific network members and practice areas. According to the findings, during the I-stage, the public sector is often take the lead to operate the demonstration field. During the C-stage, the public-private partnership alliance leads the professional market. During the R-stage, the expanded public-private partnerships alliance took the leading position, as well as these alliances enter to the communities and participate co-construction of the infrastructure. Finally, during the L-stage, the private sector takes corresponding collective actions (such as alliances, cooperation, joint ventures, mergers and acquisitions, etc.) and start a new round of innovation competition. At the end of this thesis, the academic contribution, practical implications and follow-up research suggestions of this research are further elaborated.