以基本面、消息面與籌碼面分析來判斷台積電股票是否過熱

影響股價與股價漲跌的因素主要能分成四類：基本面、技術面、消息面及籌碼面。過去對於預測股價漲跌的研究大多集中於基本面及技術面，鮮少有考慮到籌碼面與消息面的研究。此外，多數研究的研究標的為「加權指數」或是「電子類股股價」。加權指數的缺點在於它是由數個產業的股價經由加權平均後得到的結果，影響的因素過多，無法有效篩選出真正有影響力的變數；電子類股股價則克服了產業種類過多的問題，然而卻無法反映個別公司的營運狀況，無法挑選出在電子類股中表現最好的公司，因此報酬也會受到影響。　　本研究之研究標的為台積電之「股價」與「股價漲跌」。選用單一公司的股價便能有效篩選出真正有影響力的變數。台積電的市值極高，在台股加權指數中佔了20%以上的權重。同時，因為股本夠大的關係，台積電的股價不易隨著少數人的操弄而有大幅波動。　　本研究考慮基本面、技術面、消息面與籌碼面等四個層面的因素，以兩個階段做分析。第一階段先以基本面分析的方式判定現今台積電股價是否落在回規模型的預測區間內。第二階段再以技術面分析的方式決定買賣時間，其後再考慮消息面與籌碼面的因素判定台積電股價是否超漲/超跌。如果第一階段顯示台積電股價高於合理區間，且第二階段顯示台積電股價超漲，那麼台積電的股價將被判定為「過熱」，建議投資人賣出(若為持有狀態)或是不買進(若為非持有狀態)。如果第一階段與第二階段的情況呈現其他的結果，則建議投資人維持現況。

關鍵字

消息面；美股；籌碼面；台積電

並列摘要

The factors affecting stock price can be categorized as 4 major aspects: Fundamental, Technical, Informational and Chip Analysis. Most research were focusing on fundamental and technical analysis, only a few researches considered informational and chip analysis. Also, the target of most research was Taiwan Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) or Electronics Sector. The drawback of TAIEX is that there are too many aspects affecting it, like too many kinds of industries, which makes selecting the significant parameter become difficult. And the drawback of Electronics Sector is that it cannot reflect the individual performance of a certain company, and hence the return of investment would be affected. The target of this research would be the stock price and stock price change of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC). By selecting a single company, it becomes much easier to select the significant parameter. Also, the market value of TSMC weighted more than 20% of total market value of TAIEX, which made TSMC stock an important role in TAIEX. In this research, we would take fundamental, technical, informational and chip Analysis into consideration. And there would be two steps to determine if TSMC is worth holding. We would generate a predict interval from fundamental analysis, and the first step is checking if the current TSMC stock price is in the given predict interval. And we would use technical, informational and chip analysis to determine if the TSMC stock is “overrose”. If the TSMC stock is higher than the generated predict interval at the first stage, and the result of the second stage is overrose, then the TSMC stock would be determined as “overheat”, which implies that the stakeholder should sell the TSMC stock or not buying the TSMC stock.