前南斯拉夫各國族群衝突事件數量多寡原因之探討

南斯拉夫於1990年代解體並先後獨立出七個國家。然而，同樣是自南斯拉夫獨立且都有潛在族群衝突問題的前南各國，為何斯洛維尼亞、克羅埃西亞、科索沃及蒙特內哥羅等四國在獨立之後的族群衝突事件較少，而北馬其頓、塞爾維亞和波赫等三國在獨立之後的族群衝突事件較多。文獻中的研究雖然豐富，但大多僅限於針對某些特定國家或特定因素的分析，迄今尚未有一個較為通則性的解釋。本文根據文獻的建議，篩選出「該國族群間的經濟是否平等」、「該國少數族群在代議機構中的代表性是否足夠」、「該國少數族群的人口比例是否」以及「該國對少數族群的法律保障是否完善」等四個較為重要的系統性變數進行布林函數分析，並且發現「該國族群間的經濟是否平等」是影響前南各國族群衝突多寡的最關鍵原因。

關鍵字

南斯拉夫；族群衝突；民族主義；布林函數

並列摘要

A total of seven states were split from Yugoslavia after the breakup in the 1990s. Despite having potential ethnic conflicts in all states that succeeded Yugoslavia, why do Slovenia, Croatia, Kosovo, and Montenegro have fewer ethnic conflicts while North Macedonia, Serbia, and Bosnia have more ethnic conflicts? While there are plenty of previous studies about ethnic conflicts, most of them focus on analysis of certain countries or factors without any nomothetic explanation. By suggestions of the literatures, this thesis selects “economic equality among ethnic groups”, “representation of minorities in representative institution”, “proportion of minority population” and “legal assurance to minorities” as four significant systemic variables in Boolean analysis. This thesis concludes that the level of economic equality between ethnic groups is the key factor affecting the quantity of ethnic conflicts among those states.