中俄在哈薩克的競合1991-2019

近年來，中華人民共和國（以下簡稱「中國」）大國崛起的形象，從經濟崛起外溢（spillover）到政治軍事領域，中國所謂的「和平崛起」是否會對於既有的「一超多強」（One super-power and multi-powers）權力格局造成挑戰，成為外交實務圈及國際關係學界關注的焦點。中國在印太地區（Indo-Pacific）的戰略發展，較為世人所熟知，然而中國同時也在歐亞大陸積極西進，特別是一帶一路政策（Belt and Road Initiative）的首站國家哈薩克，是中亞地區最大的新興經濟體，也是領土排世界第九大的國家，從傳統的地緣政治學（Geopolitics）來看，哈薩克的戰略地位極為重要。而俄羅斯（以下簡稱「俄國」）作為前蘇聯的繼承者，雖然整體國力大不如前，畢竟仍是軍事強國，但中亞腹地向來是俄國傳統勢力範圍，可以預見俄國不會輕言鬆手，因此中國勢力若想進入中亞，勢必會與俄國重疊。位處俄中兩大國之間的哈薩克，其前身哈薩克汗國在18世紀曾經兩屬於清朝及沙俄，具有「平衡外交」的歷史傳統，其在恢復獨立後的首任總統納扎爾巴耶夫（Nursultan Ábishuly Nazarbaev）領導下，與中俄都建立友好而互惠的關係，近期更成為中國的一帶一路與俄國的歐亞經濟聯盟（Eurasian Economic Union）對接的場域。本文研究發現中國與俄國在哈薩克有合作也有競爭，但總體是合作大於競爭的競合關係，本文稱之為「刻意淡化式的競爭」；哈薩克體認到中俄雙方上述競合關係，基於其國家利益操作平衡外交，哈俄中三邊關係儼然重現哈薩克汗國的立場，對於中俄展現「新兩屬關係」，以維繫其自主性與國家發展。

關鍵字

新現實主義；地緣政治；哈薩克外交；一帶一路；歐亞經濟聯盟

並列摘要

The People’s Republic of China (hereafter referred to as China) has risen in recent years. Its rising power begins at economic growth and gradually has a spillover effect on political and military aspects. So called “China's Peaceful Rise” seems a challenge to the current world system of “One super-power and multi-powers” in which the US is the only super-power while China is one of the multi-powers, and therefore whether “China's Peaceful Rise” will remain peaceful or not become controversial among diplomats and international affairs theorists. China’s Indo-Pacific strategy has drawn the attention of the world, but alas, seldom notice China’s strategic expansion on the Central Asia – the heartland of Eurasia, especially the Republic of Kazakhstan (hereafter referred to as Kazakhstan). China chooses Kazakhstan as the first partner of the “Belt and Road” Initiative not only because Kazakhstan is one of emerging economies and has the 9th largest territory in the world but also Kazakhstan is crucial to China’s Geopolitics. As the successor of the Soviet Union, the Russian Federation (hereafter referred to as Russia) is still a military super-power though its economy has been distressing for more than one decade. The Central Asia has been dominated by Russia since the Russian Empire period, it is reasonable that the Russian government will make every effort to refrain from foreign interference, e.g., China. Kazakhstan is located between China and Russia so that has a traditional tendency of “Balance Diplomacy”. In the 18 century, both the Qing Dynasty and the Russian Empire had the suzerainty over Kazakh Khanate. Based on this historical background, the founding president of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbaev, led his country towards bilateral friendship with Russia as well as China. Lately Kazakhstan becomes the linking gateway of China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the Russia-advocated Eurasian Economic Union. The author finds that China and Russia have both cooperations and competitions; nevertheless, cooperations overwhelm competitions as a whole. The author describes the Russo-China “Cooperation” relation in Kazakhstan as “Deliberately Diluted competition”. Kazakhstan wisely perceives the Russo-China “Cooperation” relation as vitally advantageous to its own national interest, so that conducts a series of “Balance Diplomacy” between China and Russia. The author considers the Kazakh “Dual Bandwagoning Policy” a modern type of “Kazakh Khanate-Sino-Russian relations”(a new twofold subordinate relation ). Their trilateral relationship greatly helps Kazakhstan to maintain its country ownership and drive its economic growth, while Kazakhstan plays a pivot role of balancing in Russia and China.