摘要
全球先進國家除了「高齡化」的人口問題，「少子化」現象的人口結構趨勢，也是全球國家共同要面臨的問題。 亞洲國家以日本發生「少子化」的情形最早，但台灣卻是發展速度最快的國家；「少子化」反映國家和社會的經濟負擔加重， 所以「少子化」所產生的影響與帶來的問題，對即將面臨「少子化」問題的台灣是很重要課題。 依據OECD分析，生育率持續下降，造成經濟成長減緩，年輕人扶養老年比例增高，勞動人口短少，個人所得減少，平均每人財富縮減，勞動人口租稅收入短少，社會福利與公共設施的財源匱乏。 未來，年輕人負擔沉重，資源分配不公，容易造成世代間的衝突與無奈。 由於少子化現象，進入社會的成年青年一年比一年少，在勞動力供給不足，無法充足提供包括服務的財富，相對的也代表消費萎縮，少子化社會所需要的食、衣、住、行等服務必然減少，經濟成長動力必受其影響而下挫。 近年來台灣面臨了「少子化」的趨勢，此現象對台灣的影響頗為廣泛，已成為社會大眾所關切的議題。 對照之下，對台灣的國家經濟、政府財政與租稅、學校與家庭教育及退休規劃都受其影響。 勞動人口下降，台灣儲蓄率相對逐年下滑，其間是否因「少子化」對社經所產生之影響或人口結構的轉變隱含著下滑的儲蓄率，值得我們探討與研究。 本研究分析台灣「少子化」產生之原因與可能之影響，藉由已發生「少子化」現象之日本、韓國、香港及中國大陸四國，就其包括GDP、人口成長率、勞動力年增率及失業率等過去歷史統計資料，利用時間序列與橫斷面資料共用模型估計對儲蓄率之影響，並以此模型來預估台灣未來「少子化」下之儲蓄率變動情形。 財富管理是透過一系列財務規劃的程序，將各種不同型式的財富，予以科學化的管理，達成其預設的人生目標，以及如何達成人生目標的過程。 一般而言人生的財務需求目標因人而異，多數人共同的財務目標有置產計劃、子女教育、退休規劃、創造財富、財產傳承、風險管理………等。 以個人本身的財務狀況、風險承擔能力、家庭安全保障及財務目標為出發點，來設定一個屬於自己的投資組合，並由金融市場不同的風險產品工具加以選擇，以達成既定的財富目標。 本文僅以退休規劃為例，假設國人退休後，以達成70%所得替代率為目標；並以現行較保守之保險商品為規劃工具，預測未來「少子化社會」，在不同退休給付、不同的預估投資報酬之組合下，因儲蓄率的變動對原應儲蓄金額之退休後所得替代率之影響。
並列摘要
In addition to the issue of aging society, baby bust is another issue that all countries have to face. Japan is the first one in Asia to face this issue, but the most serious situation happened in Taiwan. Baby bust will cause economic problems of country and society. It is an important issue in Taiwan to face this problem. According to OECD, the declining of birth rates has caused the slowing down of economic growth,the increasing burden of young people to take of elders,the insufficient supply of laborers,the decreasing of GDP per capita, the declining in government tax income, and the shortage of financial resource of social welfare and public facilities. In the future, the conflicts of among generations might cause social problems. Laborers will be insufficient because of the decline of birth rates decline or consumption shrinking. The decrease of demand for food, clothes, houses and transpo- tation in the society of baby bust will influence the economic growth. Baby bust has been a serious concern in Taiwan these years. It will influence national economy, finance, tax, education, and the planning for retirement. The decrease of laborers will low savings. The purpose of this thesis is to find the relationships between the reflect of baby bust and saving rated. This thesis analyzes the reason of baby bust and possible effects luences in Taiwan. The data of GDPs, population growth rates, annual laborer increasing rates and unemployed rates from the countries of Japan, Korea,Hong Kong and Mainland China are utilized to analyze the effects of baby bust on the saving rates. The Time-Series/Cross Section Pooling Regressionmodel is usef in this thesis to forecast the savings change of Taiwan in the future. Wealth management is a series procedure to manage an individua’s scientific way to reach the goal that one set up. Generally people, has diffent finiancial goals, for example, children education, retirement planning, making a fortune, property inheritance and risk management. To set up an investment combination will depend on personal financial situation, the ability for risk taking, the demand for family safety and financial goals. To reach such goals, various financial products in the financial market will be used. This thesis also focuses on retirement planning. A relative conservative product of insurance is used as a tool to reach the goal of 70 % replacement rate of a retire. The effects of change in saving rates on the teplacement raye in a baby bust society with various retirement reture on investment are evaluated.