- 學位論文
撞期決策與消費者選擇－電影上映日期與票房分析
Time-Conflicted Decision and Consumer Choice －Release Date and Box Office Analysis in Motion Pictures
摘要
電影產業對於人類，不論在休閒娛樂或是全球經濟上，都佔有一定的重要性。電影相關文獻中常以電影票房為主要研究指標，尤其在娛樂產業中，價格並非直接影響績效的關鍵因素，所以時間構面之選擇與決策便更顯重要。因此，我們利用電影上映日期的選擇來探討發行商的撞期決策，藉以了解電影熱門程度之差異是否影響該決策行為。根據台灣電影業界長年的市場經驗，認為台北票房加倍可作為全省票房數據，因此我們研究標的將以台北地區的票房為主，同時蒐集每部電影的相關資訊分析變項之相關性。本研究設立撞期決策理論模型，將消費者時間限制與電影期待程度納入假設，推論不同上映日期選擇中，可能的電影預期票房結果。我們同時對模型進行實證分析，結果發現：(1) 隨著年度強檔大片的熱門程度增加，較冷門的電影會避開與之同期上映；(2) 隨著次熱門電影的熱門程度越高，較冷門的電影反而會選擇與之同期上映；(3) 當非熱門時段的市場變大，冷門的電影便更有誘因避開與強檔大片同期上映。消費者選擇的部分，我們利用簡單的迴歸模型，分析各變項間的影響關係，主要以總票數、總票房、滿意度及期待度為被解釋變數，結果發現撞期電影數的多寡對於上述變數都有顯著影響。
並列摘要
The motion picture industry for humans, both in entertainment activity and global economy, has occupied a certain importance. The related literature often focuses on the movie box office as the main research objective, especially in the entertainment industry. However, the price here does not play as a key factor affecting the performance directly. Therefore, the decision-making in the time dimension is more important in this industry. In this study, we develop a time-conflicted decision model to investigate the choices of the distributors clash decisions, in order to understand whether the differences between the film “popularity” affect the conflicted decision-making. According to the experience of motion picture market in Taiwan, the doubles of the Taipei box office could be served as an estimate of whole Taiwan box office. Thus, we studied the main box office data based in Taipei, and analyze the correlation between variables by gathering information about each movie during 2003-2011. The model sets up the consumer time limits and level of expectation into movies assumptions, and inferences the possibility of expected movie box office result between different release dates. In addition, we also conducted descriptive statistics and linear regressions, and the empirical findings support the model implications. Our model and data have the following results: (1) With the popularity of the prime time movie increase will avoid less popular movies released with the same period; (2) With the popularity of the hit movie increase, less popular movies would release with the same period instead; (3) Non-popular movie would be more incentive to avoid releasing with the same period with prime time movie, when the usual market become large. With regard to consumer choice section, we use a simple regression model to analyze the impact of the relationship between variables, total count, total box office, degree of satisfaction and expectation are the main dependent variable, and found that the number of the movie clash would significant effect.