- 學位論文
雙向外商直接投資灰色決策系統之研究
Analyzing Bilateral Foreign Direct Investment Using Grey Decision Systems
摘要
隨著經濟全球化的不斷加深，國家與國家之間的貿易往來、資本流動、技術轉移不斷增加，逐漸形成相互依存、相互影響的有機經濟體。外商直接投資作為全球資本流動的主要渠道，對於國際貿易往來的提升，東道國和母國的經濟推動作用都有目共睹。因此，外商直接投資相關議題越來越受到各國政府，以及學界的重視。得益于經濟的不斷發展，一國同時兼具了東道國和母國的雙重身份，不僅能夠吸引外商直接投資的流入，也能促進該國對外進行直接投資。 中國作為全球第二大經濟體和最主要的外商直接投資目的地之一，一直以來都因用工成本低、龐大的國內市場等優勢吸引外商進行直接投資。近年來，隨著中國經濟快速增長，中國不斷推動“走出去”戰略，特別是“一帶一路”倡議的提出，更是進一步推動對外直接投資的增加。雙向外商直接投資作為中國參與國際分工與合作的方式之一，對本國和東道國的經濟發展都有重要的作用。因此，對雙向外商直接投資議題的研究，是政府做出與雙向外商直接投資相關決策的重要基石。 在現實環境中，很多系統提供的訊息是有限且不完全的，此類系統被稱為灰色系統。由此類系統所輸出之訊息，仍然不能完全明確系統內部之結構與作用原理等機制。雙向外商直接投資相關議題是典型的灰色決策系統，因為有很多因素都會對外商直接投資造成影響，但這些因素對外商直接投資的具體影響機制與影響效果並不明確。有鑒於此，本文採用灰色理論對雙向外商直接投資相關問題進行分析。 本文應用灰色理論針對中國雙向外商投資問題中的四個議題進行分析。議題一是採用灰色矩陣關聯分析(GMRA)對影響中國吸引外商直接投資的關鍵因素進行分析。GMRA是對傳統灰色關聯分析(GRA)觀念的拓展，其主要特點在於能夠將GRA的觀念應用於同時包含了時間和橫截面雙重特性的縱橫數據上。本文選擇中國前五大外商直接投資的省份或城市作為研究對象，利用2011年至2015年的數據，分析影響外商直接投資的關鍵因素。研究結果顯示，人均國民生產總值、研究開發人員數量、高等教育在校生人數、研究與開發支出是吸引外商直接投資的關鍵因素。研究結果還表明，近年來外商選擇對中國投資主要受市場尋求動機和效率尋求動機的驅動。 議題二是針對台灣對大陸直接投資進行預測。本文借鑒殘差修正模型在灰色預測GM(1,1)模型中的應用，將GM(1,1)、傅里葉級數作為殘差修正模型與傳統的多變量灰色預測GM(1,N)模型相結合，提出了創新的「基於灰色多變量模型的殘差修正模型」(GMGMF)，並將其應用於台灣對大陸直接投資預測。預測模型中相關變量的選擇是基於議題一的研究結果，將議題一中所得出的關鍵因素作為GMGMF模型中的相關變量，對台灣對大陸直接投資進行預測。研究結果表明，GMGMF模型的預測精確度高於其他預測模型，說明本文所提出的GMGMF模型在預測台灣對大陸直接投資的有效性與準確性。預測結果顯示， 2017年至2019年台灣對中國大陸的外商投資將呈現下降趨勢。 議題三是對中國對外直接投資預測。本文選擇國內生產總值、進口和出口總量作為相關變量，利用GMGMF模型對中國對外投資進行預測。研究結果顯示，本文所提出的GMGMF模型對中國對外直接投資預測精確度仍然優於其他預測模型。最終的預測結果顯示，2017年至2019年，中國的對外直接投資將保持持續上升的態勢。 議題四是運用GRA對雙向外商直接投資對中國宏觀經濟發展的影響進行分析。本文不僅對中國雙向FDI總量對經濟發展的影響進行分析，也針對中國與不同國家或地區雙向FDI對經濟發展的影響進行研究。研究結果顯示，從存量的角度而言，外商直接投資對中國宏觀經濟發展的影響較大，但從流量的角度而言，對外直接投資對宏觀經濟發展起到主導作用。研究結果還表明，與發達國家之間的雙向外商直接投資對中國宏觀經濟發展的作用較大。 本研究的主要貢獻在於以下幾個方面，首先，利用灰色決策系統對雙向外商直接投資相關議題進行研究，明確系統內部之結構，獲得更多的信息輸出。其次，將灰色關聯分析的觀念應用到縱橫數據上，拓寬了灰色關聯分析的應用範圍。最後，提出新的基於灰色多變量模型的殘差修正模型，提高了GM(1,N)模型的預測精確度。
並列摘要
With the deepening of economic globalization, the international trade, capital flow and technology transfer between different countries are increasing, which established an interdependent and interacting global economy. Foreign direct investment (FDI), as the main channel of the global capital flow, plays an important role in promoting the international trade and promoting the economic development of both host and home countries. Therefore, the issues related to FDI have been paid more and more attention by governments and scholars. The economic development not only attracts inward FDI (IFDI), but also promotes outward FDI (OFDI), which means that one country owns dual identities of host country and home country simultaneously. China, as the world’s second largest economy and one of the popular destinations of IFDI, has been attracting IFDI due to some certain advantage, such as lower labor cost, the huge domestic market, and so on. In addition, with the continuously implementation of “Going Out” strategy, especially the “Belt and Road” initiative, OFDI will increase in next few years. Bilateral FDI is one of the channels for China to participate in international specialization and cooperation and it is also one of the essential driving forces to promote the China’s economic development. There is no doubt that the research on the issues of bilateral FDI is a key for the government to make the decisions concerned with bilateral FDI. Most of systems are a grey system, which is defined as an uncertain system whose information is partially known, and cannot fully aware of the structure and mechanism inside the system. The issues related to bilateral FDI can be regarded as a grey decision system. Because there are many factors that will affect bilateral FDI, but the specific influence mechanism and effect between those factors and bilateral FDI are not clear. Hence, this dissertation applies grey theory to analyze the related issues of bilateral FDI. This dissertation applies grey theory to analyze four issues regards to China’s bilateral FDI. The first issue uses grey matrix relational analysis (GMRA) to find out the determinants attracting China’s IFDI. GMRA can be treated as an extension of the concept of Grey Relation Analysis (GRA) to panel data, which contains both of time-series and cross section characteristics. Top 5 IFDI regions in China are taken an example for a period of 2011-2015. The results show that the market size, the quality of human capital, enrollment of regular institutions of higher education, and expenditure on R&D are the determinants of IFDI attracting in China. The results also show that the foreign investors were motivated by market seeking and efficiency seeking to invest in China. Issue 2 focuses on the prediction of Taiwanese direct investment (TDI) in China. This dissertation proposed a hybrid prediction model combines the traditional grey prediction GM(1,N) model with the residual modification model using GM(1,1) model and Fourier series (GMGMF), and applied it to China’s TDI prediction. The key factors based on the results of issue 1 are taken as the relevant variables in the GMGMF model to predict TDI in China. The results show that the prediction accuracy of GMGMF model is higher than that of other models, which proves the validity and accuracy of the proposed GMGMF model. Furthermore, based on the prediction results, TDI in China will decline from 2017 to 2019. The third issue predicts China’s OFDI. The proposed GMGMF model was applied to China’s OFDI forecasting with gross domestic products, the volume of export and import as relevant variables. According to the results, the prediction accuracy of GMGMF model is still higher than that of other prediction models. The results show that China’s OFDI will continue to rise in the year of 2017-2019. The fourth issue analyzes the impact of bilateral FDI on China’s macroeconomic development through grey relational analysis (GRA). This dissertation not only focuses on the influence of global bilateral FDI on economic development, but also studies the impact of bilateral FDI from or to different countries or regions on economic development in China. The results show that the IFDI has a great impact on China’s macroeconomic development from the stock perspective, but from the flow perspective, OFDI plays a primary role in macroeconomic development. The bilateral FDI with developed countries plays a significant role in the macroeconomic development of China. The main contributions of this study are as follows: firstly, the grey decision system is applied to analyze the related issues of bilateral FDI, to clarify the internal structure of the system and to achieve more information. Secondly, the concept of GRA is applied to panel data, which expended the application field of GRA. Finally, a novel grey prediction model incorporating GM(1,N) with residual modification model is proposed, which improves the prediction accuracy of the GM(1,N) model.