應用社會網路分析法於美元指數影響因子辨識

後布雷頓森林體系時代，全球政治經濟的特徵之一，是全球金融史無前例的增長，而且沒有受到一連串金融危機的影響。全球金融的快速擴張被視為與實際經濟的情況脫鉤。因此，金融與實際經濟之間的關係是全球政治經濟中最不為人知的經濟現象。跨學科的廣泛學術研究側重於通過各種分析框架來發掘金融全球化的複雜過程，例如市場效率、主導國家的權力和利益以及新的制度發展。所有人似乎都承認美元是金融全球化重要的組成部分。然而，學術上以及商業上在分析全球金融複雜的變化時，卻很難找出是那些因子影響了美元。儘管地緣政治角力發生了變化，市場也隨時隨地不斷進化成長，但以美元主導的概念仍保持不變。過去在研究總體經濟變數與股市的相關實證的研究著作繁多，基本上影響因子偏離不了石油、黃金以及美國股市，不過針對於美元指數相關互動的總體經濟細節探討則較缺乏，由於美元目前還是國際貿易及投資的主要貨幣之一，且流動性及使用上還是最高的，所以目前在國際上的地位仍是不可動搖。而美元的強弱走勢幾乎是牽動著其他金融市場的因子和反應在投資報酬上。本研究希望利用社會網絡分析法來找出過去20年間四段不同時期影響美元指數之關鍵因子，以協助投資者在投資決策過程中，有更全面的資料輔助，降低投資風險。研究期間分為四個時間段: 網路科技泡沫重創時期、全球金融危機前牛市時期、金融危機大衰退時期、寬鬆貨幣後榮景牛市時期。透過社會網絡分析法，分析過往20年間的美元指數變化，不難發現，石油與美元指數的變化仍然處與高度正相關的關係，石油之於每人平常生活的重要性，也代表美元對於全世界國家政府的重要性，也可以解釋：只要強勢美元存在的一天，美元石油的唯一兌換關係就會存在。

關鍵字

美元指數；黃金；原油； CRB指數；美國10年期公債殖利率；社會網絡分析法

並列摘要

One of the most visible features of the global political economy in the post-Bretton Woods era is the unprecedented growth of global finance, unaffected by a string of financial crises. The rapid expansion of global finance is seen as decoupled from real economic conditions. The relationship between finance and the real economy is thus the least understood economic phenomenon in the global political economy. Broad academic research across disciplines focuses on unearthing the complex processes of financial globalization, such as market efficiency, the power and interests of dominant states, and new institutional developments, through various analytical frameworks. Everyone seems to agree that the dollar is an important part of financial globalization. However, when analyzing complex changes in global finance both academically and commercially, it is difficult to identify those factors that affect the dollar. While geopolitical tensions have changed and markets have evolved and grown anytime, anywhere, the concept of dollar dominance in the future remains the same. In the past, there have been much research works on the correlation of overall economic variables and the stock market. Basically, the impact factors cannot deviate from Oil, Gold, and the US stock market. However, there is a lack of general economic details on the interaction of the US dollar index. Because the US dollar is currently one of the major currencies in international trade and investment, and has the highest liquidity and use, its current international status is still unshakable. The strength of the dollar is almost a factor that affects other financial markets and is reflected in investment returns. This research hopes to use the social network analysis method to find out the key factors affecting the US dollar index in four different periods in the past 20 years, assist investors with more comprehensive information and reduce investment risks in the process of investment decision-making. The research period is divided into four sections: the period of the Internet technology bubble, the period of the bull market before the global financial crisis, the period of the Great Recession of the financial crisis, and the period of the booming bull market after the loose money. Through social network analysis, it is not difficult to find that the changes in oil and the US Dollar index are still highly positively correlated. The importance of Oil to everyone's daily life also represents the importance of the US Dollar to governments around the world. It can also be explained: if strong dollar exists, the relationship with Oil will exist.