台股定期不定額投資策略之研究

2020年3月，全球股市因疫情爆發急速崩跌，但在政府的寬鬆政策及企業持續成長帶動反彈。美股及台股皆創下歷史新高，開戶數和成交量也屢創新高。這顯示出股票市場依然是最重要的投資市場。定期定額投資法雖然讓投資人可以不用猜測市場高低點，然而在多頭行情時間較長時，其效益可能變得不那麼明顯。相對地，定期不定額的投資方式或許是直接的解決方案。這種策略能夠更好地應對市場波動，為投資者帶來更穩健的投資表現。因此本研究同時採用不同加減碼策略，利用乖離率指標與定期不定額之加減碼金額來建構投資組合模型。本研究觀察了台灣50近兩年相對高、低點之乖離率分布圖，可以發現能策動漲跌幅之乖離率是分散的，因此研究出不同級距之定期不定額加減碼策略，並套用到各產業龍頭股，其報酬率相較傳統的定期定額及定期不定額策略平均提升了5.5%，且研究發現此策略用於股價較高之股票能有更好的報酬率差異，並且讓投資人可以免於買在高點的煩惱，在相對低點時也能持續加碼，創造出相較於定期定額更高的報酬率。

關鍵字

定期不定額投資策略；技術指標；台灣50ETF ；投資報酬率

並列摘要

In March 2020, global stock markets sharply declined due to the pandemic but quickly rebounded with loose monetary policies and government stimulus. Both the US and Taiwan stock markets reached historic highs, with a surge in new account openings and trading volumes. Dollar-cost averaging helps avoid market timing hassles, but its effectiveness may lessen during prolonged bull markets as it disregards entry prices. On the other hand, periodic Value Averaging Investment Strategy investment offers a straightforward solution. Investors can adjust investments during rising and falling trends, accumulating more at lower market levels and potentially increasing overall returns. This study uses various scaling strategies, deviation indicators, and periodic Value Averaging Investment amounts to construct a strategy. It examined deviation rates for the Taiwan Top 50 index at high and low points over two years, finding widely dispersed rates triggering significant price movements. Interval-based Value Averaging Investment strategies were developed and applied to leading stocks, improving average returns by 5.5% compared to traditional Dollar Cost Averaging. The strategy performed exceptionally well with higher-priced stocks, yielding better returns and allowing investors to avoid buying at market peaks. Accumulating during low points resulted in higher returns than Dollar Cost Averaging.