摘要
在過去的幾年中，屢屢有許多的專家學者公開表示加密貨幣是個泡沫，其不具任何價值。本研究希望能夠預測加密貨幣的價格，由於加密貨幣沒有可靠的基本面資訊，採用技術分析指標進行預測。本研究亦嘗試訂定自己的泡沫標準，希望確定加密貨幣是否為一個泡沫。另外，本研究探討加密貨幣能否作為降低投資組合風險的工具，試圖為加密貨幣找到其他存在價值。本研究研究結果如下： 1.技術分析指標雖然對加密貨幣日報酬的預測能力不佳，但對週報酬有顯著預測能力。 2.本研究根據金融泡沫核心觀念定義出自己的泡沫標準，並以此標準判定加密貨幣在過去確實存在泡沫。 3.加密貨幣與美國三大指數、黃金、布蘭特原油的關聯性極低，可做為降低投資組合風險的工具，共同組成投資組合。 最後，本研究認為，雖然加密貨幣在2017年第4季到2018年第1季期間，確實存在泡沫的現象，然而泡沫應該是個過程而非結束。泡沫可能是一個優勝劣汰的過程，不應因為現在存在泡沫而完全否定一個事物的價值。 關鍵字：比特幣、加密貨幣、泡沫、技術分析、降低投資組合風險。
並列摘要
In the past few years, many experts and scholars have publicly stated that cryptocurrency is a bubble, and it has no value. This study hopes to predict the price of cryptocurrency. Since cryptocurrency doesn't have reliable fundamental information, this study uses technical analysis indicators to predict. This study also attempts to set our own bubble standard and hopes to determine whether the cryptocurrency is a bubble. In addition, this study explores whether cryptocurrency can be used as a tool to reduce portfolio risk, thereby finding other existential values for cryptocurrency. The results of this research are as follows: 1.Although technical analysis has poor predictive ability for cryptocurrency daily returns, it has significant predictive ability for weekly returns. 2.This study defines our own bubble standard based on the core concept of the financial bubble, and uses this standard to determine that the cryptocurrency does have a bubble in the past. 3.The cryptocurrency has very low correlation with the three major US indexes, gold and Brent crude oil, and can be used as a tool to reduce the risk of portfolios and form a portfolio. Finally, this study believes that although the cryptocurrency does have a bubble during the fourth quarter of 2017 to the first quarter of 2018, the bubble should be a process rather than an end. The bubble may be a process of survival of the fittest, and should not completely deny the value of a thing because of the current bubble. Keywords: Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, bubble, technical analysis, reduce portfolio risk.