政策打房對房地產市場價量影響之研究-以台中市為例

Impact Analysis of Housing Policies on Real Estate Market: A Case Study of Taichung City

徐鳳錦(Feng-Ching Hsu)

指導教授 ： 葉家瑜

國立暨南國際大學/管理學院/兩岸高階主管經營管理境外碩士在職學位學程/碩士(2024年)

https://doi.org/10.6837/ncnu202400308

摘要

本研究旨在調控房價確保購屋者權益，遏制投資炒作，以實現居住正義。主要以房地合一稅1.0及2.0的政策進展及總體經濟條件觀察房價變動，以脈絡分析法探討政策打房對台中房價及交易量的影響，並以五分位分析台中市房價歷年走勢。本研究由總體經濟面觀察供給端的信心指標，以建築貸款餘額、建築融資餘額及建物買賣移轉棟數為參考值；另以需求面的先行指標，以新承做購屋貸款金額及購置住宅貸款餘額為參考值，觀察需求的變化。研究發現在房地合一稅1.0及2.0政策實行後，並無法達成「以稅制價」的政策目標，反而加重供給端的持有成本進而轉嫁至需求端，導致價格堆疊形成高房價，形成量縮價揚的狀況。為呼應觀察結果，本研究也採用質性問卷調查，以購屋者為訪問對象，歸納出房市預期心理及房價上漲因素，歸納出資金熱潮及通膨效應對房價影響為正相關。
近來中央銀行遂又推出信用管制、升息調控，短時間有其趨緩成效。本研究結果希望有助於政策制定者和需求者更清楚了解各項政策對房地產的影響，提供修正及改善方向。

關鍵字

打房政策 ； 房地產市場 ； 台中市 ； 居住正義

並列摘要

This study aims to achieve housing justice by adjusting real estate prices for consumer protection and stemming the speculation of real estate investment. The development of The House and Land Transactions Income Tax and the overall economic conditions are the main factors the study will research and analyze. This study researches the effects of government policies on real estate prices and trading volume in Taichung by observing real estate prices and the contextual stepwise approach, analyzing the real estate prices trending by using boxplot and quantile. After The House and Land Transactions Income Tax is released, it is hard to lower the market price by adjusting taxes. The carrying cost is increased because of the taxes, the amount will be transferred to the consumers, and the market price is increased because of this phenomenon. It causes high market prices and low trading volume. This study observes the supply-side confidence index by macroeconomics, construction loans, and real estate trading volume as the reference. On the other side, the leading indicator of the demand side as the factor to observe the changes in demand, home loans, and house-purchasing loans as the reference. As the Central Bank released credit controls and lift rate adjustments, it eases the phenomenon in the short term. This study is conducting research on housebuyers by using the questionnaire, to summarize the market trending and the factors of market price raising, since the funding boom and inflation have a positive correlation on the real estate market price. Hoping for a balance between supply and demand.
However, real estate that traded in the old system before 2016 is not limited by the new system. Owners pay lower taxes. It is not fair to the market. Policies should be adjusted to protect the stakeholders. Stakeholders should have a better understanding on the effect of the policies.

並列關鍵字

Reduce Property Speculation ； Real Estate Market ； Taichung ； Housing Justice

參考文獻

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內政部（2023）。112 年第2 季房價負擔能力指標統計成果。內政部不動產資訊平台。http://pip.moi.gov.tw/V2/E/SCRE0106.aspx

內政部（2024a）。實價登錄。內政部不動產交易實價查詢服務網。https://lvr.land.moi.gov.tw/

內政部（2024b）。建物買賣移轉登記棟數。內政部不動產資訊平台。http://pip.moi.gov.tw/V2/E/SCRE0106.aspx

內政部營建署（2024，5月17日）。內政統計通報。內政部。https://www.moi.gov.tw/News_Content.aspx?n=9&sms=9009&s=315858