- 學位論文
庫藏股制度之探討－以產業景氣循環為例
An Investigation of Treasury Stock System-the Case of Business Cycle
摘要
當庫藏股制度開始實施後，公司採取股票購回有各種原因和目的，包括資訊訊號假說、自由現金流量假說和股利替代假說等等。本文的研究目的是以訊號理論為出發點，在賽局訊號理論工具輔助下，將產業景氣循環變數納入模型中，推論公司股票購回實施可能性將與產業景氣存在負相關，意即當產業景氣差，實施股票購回的機率會增加。依據理論模型推導出一個最適分離均衡解，即在產業景氣較差時，品質較好的公司會採取特定的股票購回策略，釋放訊息給投資大眾，公司本身為高品質公司；而低品質公司在考慮風險成本下，不會採取股票購回，因此投資大眾便能從股票購回所傳遞的訊號來分辨公司的類型。本文第二個目的是要驗證理論模型中的實證意涵和所建立的假說，實證結果發現，當產業景氣較差時，公司有較高的機率會採取股票購回，與理論模型結果一致。此外，當公司股價淨值比較低及財務槓桿程度較低時，都有較高的機率會採取股票購回，符合所建立的假說，但在公司規模變數上，發現公司規模越大，有較大的機率會採取股票購回，與所建立的假說相違背。
並列摘要
The literatures have mentioned several reasons to explain why firms adopt the strategy of share repurchase, including information or signalling hypothesis and free cash flow hypothesis... Using the model of signaling game, we investigate the relationship between business cycle and the probability of adopting share repurchase. We conclude that it is too risky for the low-quality company to adopt the share repurchase when the time is bad. Therefore, the high-quality firm is much easier to signal its own type by adopting share repurchase. In short, our paper shows that the business cycle is negative related with the probability of adopting share repurchase. We also verify few hypotheses empirically, in which both of the price-book ratio and leverage ration are negatively related with the probability of adopting share repurchase. We also like to point out an observation that is not agreed with the main strain of literatures. Our empirical study shows that the larger of firm’s size is, the higher probability of adopting share repurchase is.