- 學位論文
金融危機型態與總體經濟波動：亞洲金融風暴與新冠肺炎疫情之比較
Crisis Types Versus Macroeconomic Fluctuations: the Comparison Between Asian Financial Crisis and Covid-19
摘要
本論文主旨在於研究亞洲金融危機與新冠肺炎疫情期間總體經濟波動的不同。這些金融危機屬於不同的類型及具有不同的總體經濟現象。就我們所知，目前對於新冠肺炎疫情的研究集中在個體經濟領域。本研究對於總體經濟中新冠肺炎的研究有貢獻，特別是在一些情況中研究及比較各經濟指標的效果。 首先，從敘述統計量中可以觀察到亞洲金融危機對各國的影響不盡相同，但新冠肺炎的影響卻是全球性的。貨幣供給（M2）在模型中捕捉了大量且顯著的效果，在新冠肺炎期間扮演重要角色。疫情造成的高死亡率對貨幣供給造成較大的衝擊。因此，若不考慮死亡率，貨幣供給將不會產生如此大的影響。 第二，向量誤差模型也加強了上述觀點，我們觀察到在誤差修正項中貨幣供給捕捉了造成長期均衡失衡的大部分效果。 總結來說，當疫情期間死亡人數被考慮時，貨幣供給的效果在許多經濟體中被“放大”了，因此新冠肺炎疫情相比亞洲金融危機具有更大衝擊。
並列摘要
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the differences in the macroeconomic influences between Asian financial crisis and Covid-19 pandemic. These crises have variant crisis types and macroeconomic phenomena. As we know, the current literature on covid-19 was mainly focused in microeconomics field. This paper contributed in the research of covid-19 on macroeconomics field, especially the investigation and comparison of the effect on each economic indicator and compared the effect in several cases. First, the statistical report shows the effect of Asian financial crisis was heterogeneous, while covid-19 affected globally. Monetary supply(M2) acted as a more important role during the covid-19 period because it captured a larger, significant effect as we thought. The covid-19 pandemic, yielding a higher death rate, has a larger money supply impact. Without considering the death rate, the influence of money supply would not generate such higher effect. Second, the results of vector-error correction model strengthened our view above, we observe that money supply captured most of the effect that misbalanced the long-run equilibrium in error-correction term. To sum up, covid-19 had larger impact compared with Asian financial crisis in 1997, since money supply effect has been “amplified” in many economies under the consideration of the death rate during the covid-19 period.