COVID-19疫情下的總體經濟因素對房地產指數的關聯探討

本研究旨在探討COVID19疫情下的總體經濟因素對台北市房價指數的關聯探討，期間採用2008年1月至2023年6月之月資料，研究方法使用單根檢定、共整合檢定、向量誤差修正模型、迴歸分析來探討房貸利率、消費者物價指數、景氣指標、國民生產毛額、失業率對於台北市房價指數的影響，經由實證結果發現: 經由共整合檢定結果可發現台北市房價指數與房貸利率、消費者物價指數、景氣指標、國民生產毛額、失業率存在長期均衡之關係，而透過向量誤差修正模型與迴歸分析模型進行實證可發現，房貸利率、景氣指標、失業率皆與台北市房價指數呈現負向相關，亦即當房貸利率調降時，將降低購屋成本，此也將吸引更多消費者進入房地產市場；而當景氣指標從衰退期邁向復甦期時，消費者對於市場經濟看法變樂觀，便開始增加對於房地產的投資；最後是失業率，當失業率下降表示勞動市場之勞動力也將上升，此也將導致消費者增加購買房地產之意願，綜觀上述之總體經濟指標，可發現確實與房價指數呈現負向相關，若上述3項指標下跌，也將造成房價上漲。

關鍵字

房價指數； COVID19新冠疫情；總體經濟因素；長期均衡

並列摘要

This study aims to investigate the relationship between the macroeconomic indicators on the housing price index of Taipei City under the COVID19 pandemic. This study use the following methods: unit root test, co-integration test, vector error correction model and ordinary least squares, to explore the impact of macroeconomics indicators on the Taipei housing price index. The indicators includes mortgage interest rates, consumer price index, business indicators database, gross domestic product, unemployment rate, and the sample is monthly data from January 2008 to June 2003. The empirical results show that: 1. From the co-integration test result, This study find that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the Taipei housing price index and mortgage interest rates, consumer price index, business indicators database, gross domestic product, unemployment rate. 2. The vector error correction model and ordinary least squares obtain the result that mortgage interest rates, business indicators database, and the unemployment rate are all negatively correlated with the Taipei housing price index. 3. The low mortgage interest rates will reduce the cost of buying a house, and the low rates also attract more consumers to enter the real estate market. 4. Consumers are optimistic about the market economy when the business indicators move from the recession period to the recovery period, and they will increase their funds in the real estate market. 5. When the unemployment rate falls, the strong labor market also increase the consumers’ willingness to buy the real estate. In sum, This study find a long term equilibrium between the macroeconomic indicators and the housing prices, and the results are important for investors and government.