魔球理論應用於亞洲職業棒球之研究－以日本職棒聯盟為例

Michael Lewis (2003) 於2003年出版了魔球 (Moneyball:The art of winning an unfair game) ，書中記錄了美國職棒大聯盟中奧克蘭運動家隊利用了嶄新的棒球統計觀念，推翻傳統重視身材、全壘打的概念，改為重視影響勝率更多的上壘率，運動家隊利用了薪資市場效率不彰的現象，以極低的薪資預算獲得了不斐的成績，魔球理論應運而生。現有針對魔球理論應用的研究中，多是以美國職棒大聯盟作為研究標的。本研究參考過去魔球理論相關文獻，利用日本職棒聯盟2010年至2019年的球隊及球員數據，來檢視在日本職棒聯盟中，上壘率以及長打率對於球隊勝率、場均得分以及球員薪資的影響力，並以此了解日本職棒聯盟中是否有魔球書中提及之現象。透過一般係數的迴歸分析，上壘率對於勝率、得分、薪資的影響力都超過了長打率；但若是使用標準化的迴歸分析，則是反轉為長打率對於勝率、得分及薪資有較大的影響力。對於薪資的研究結果同時顯示，日本職棒聯盟球團是有給予球員符合其對勝利貢獻的薪資，並無魔球書中提及薪資市場效率不彰之現象。最後提出結論以及對聯盟、球團以及後續研究之建議。

關鍵字

上壘率；日本職棒聯盟；長打率；魔球理論

並列摘要

In 2003, Michael Lewis published the book, Moneyball: The art of winning an unfair game. This book contained the story that Oakland Athletics utilize brand-new statistical concept in baseball. A’s overturned the traditional idea to evaluate players by homerun or players’ figure. They focused more on On-base Percentage which was proved more relative to winning percentage than other stats. Taking advantage of the low efficiency in the player wage market, A’s was able to get great performance in an extremely low budget. The Moneyball theory came into being. Most studies about Moneyball theory took Major League Baseball as research object. This paper takes Nippon Professional Baseball 2010 to 2019 season as research object to exmine OBP and SLG’s influence on winning percentage, scores per game and players’ salary. The regression analysis result reveals that OBP’s influence on winning percentage, scores per game and salary over SLG’s. But, if we conducted the standardized regression analysis, the opposite result shows that SLG become the larger influence factor. This study demonstrated NPB players’ payroll is efficiently refelect their productivity. Lastly, the empirical results in this study provide suggestions for NPB, teams in NPB and follow up studies.