- 學位論文
全球金融海嘯發生前後亞洲貨幣與人民幣匯率 關聯性之探討
THE CORRELATION OF EXCHANGE RATE BETWEEN ASINA MONETARY AND RMB DURING THE PERIOD ( BEFORE AND AFTER ) OF FINANCIAL TSUNAMI
摘要
全球金融海嘯發生前後亞洲貨幣與人民幣匯率關聯性之探討 研究生：陳美玲 指導教授：葉堂宇博士、王啟秀博士 清雲科技大學經營管理研究所碩士在職專班 摘 要 隨著次級房貸風暴重挫歐美金融體系，連鎖效應燒向世界各國，演變成全球金融危機，迫使多國聯合降息、挹資紓困、提供資產擔保。東亞各國金融業雖不涉歐美風暴的核心，但外資佔亞洲各國股市市值可觀，金融危機發生後外資撤退回流，亞股立時動彈不得；歐美陷入房市泡沫破裂、信貸成本上升以及經濟衰退陰霾，消費萎縮深深衝擊靠貿易出口起家的東亞，與全球經貿整合、相互依存程度深化的中國當然無法忽視這一點。 因此金融風暴後人民幣與東亞國家幣值相繼貶值，並於2008年12月1日由1美元兌換6.8264人民幣貶至2008年下半年1美元兌換6.886人民幣，以利中國大陸產品與東協國家競爭；這也意味著，東協與中國在第三地市場出口競爭相當激烈。 人民幣匯率走勢已是全球共同關心的焦點，本研究主要目的將以panel data fixed effect(即一組包含多個國家、多個時點及同時考量到橫斷面及時間因素的資料)之方式分析，找尋出影響人民幣匯率之相關經濟指標、鄰近的東協各國匯率走勢，藉由了解中國大陸與東協十國之經貿往來之影響，以及中國大陸本身經濟之狀況，建構出人民幣均衡匯率之模型。 關鍵詞：人民幣匯率、 東協國家、全球金融海嘯
並列摘要
THE CORRELATION OF EXCHANGE RATE BETWEEN ASINA MONETARY AND RMB DURING THE PERIOD ( BEFORE AND AFTER ) OF FINANCIAL TSUNAMI Student：Chen,Mei-Ling Advisor：Henryyeh,Tang-Yu Wang,Chih-siu Department of Business and Operations Management Ching Yun University Abstract The financial system of Europe and U.S.Drop sharply because of the storm of secondmortgage, while such chain effect permeates to many countries causing the whole world financial crisis. The United Nation is forced to reduce the interest rate, to scoop up the capital relief, and the assets cover. The financial Body of the Eastern Asia countries may not be affected by the core of storm, but the stock market value of the foreign capital accounts for the Asian countries still drops a lot. The financial crisis makes the foreign capital retreats and the Asian stock cannot move immediately. The house market of Europe and US falls terribly, the cost of credit rises as well as the economic recession, which builds up the trade export dependence with the global economics and trade conformity. Thus, China certainly can not ignore this point. The Renminbi and the East Asian country currency value depreciate one after another, i.e., the exchanges 6.8264 Renminbi in December 1, 2008 by 1 US dollar to censure to 1 US dollar exchanges 6.886 Renminbi. In order to support the products of Mainland China and The Association of Southeast Asian Nations competition to reduce the tense in the third place market export. The trend of the RMB rate is already on the focal point now. This main purposes of this research are as follows: Many points in time frame by panel data fixed effect are considered simultaneously to cross section and time factor materials within a group of many countries. We try to pursue the trend and the influence RMB rate and the related economic indicators among the neighbored Association of Southeast Asian Nations, as well as the economy of Mainland China itself, and to construct a model of the Renminbi balanced exchange rate. Keywords: RMB, Eastern Asia Countries