- 學位論文
複雜科學與歷史的交匯點─趙光義繼統的管理哲學與分析
The Intersection of Complex Science and History: Management Philosophy and Analysis of Zhao Guangyi's Succession
摘要
本研究試圖以宋朝第一次和第二次皇位傳承為案例，整合複雜科學、社會科學與歷史學探討偶然事件對於歷史必然性的衝擊。 從歷史命題的角度分析，本研究透過〈金匱之盟〉的需求、洛陽遷都的可行性、太宗篡位的可能性以及宋太祖駕崩當晚太監王繼恩的行動肯定宋太宗兄終弟及的合理性。 在複雜科學方面，本研究整合泛穩定性、臨機破立、蝴蝶效應、耗散結構和自組織理論。在社會科學方面則演繹「超穩定結構」假說、公共池塘理論與權威來源分析。作為研究結果，筆者認為趙匡胤與杜太后的合議確保宋朝第一次皇位交接，從整體非理性的囚徒困境，轉向理性可控的公共池塘模式，為北宋打下堅實的基礎。然而，由於欠缺外部機制確保公共池塘協議的持續發展，導致公共池塘的運行只能依照立約者的意願運轉，從而使該模式僅能維持一代。 本研究認為；作為亂世之後，應對紛繁不確定性的政治規劃，〈金匱之盟〉成功的讓北宋完成了較為平穩的第一次皇位過度。但是做為繼承方案，由於欠缺外在機制的監管；從而導致方案本身無法永續發展。
並列摘要
The research attempts to use the first and second inheritance of the Song Dynasty as cases to integrate complex science, social science and history to explore the impact of accidental events on historical inevitability. From the perspective of historical propositions, this research confirms the rationality of Song Taizong's brother and brother through the needs of "The Alliance of the Golden Chamber", the feasibility of moving the capital to Luoyang, the possibility of Taizong's usurpation, and the eunuch Wang Jiens actions on the night of Song Taizu's death. In terms of complex science, this research integrates pan-stability, impending failure, butterfly effect, dissipative structure and self-organization theory. In the social sciences, he deduces the hypothesis of "Super Stable Structure", the theory of Public Ponds and the styles of authorization. As a result of the research, the author believes that the collegiate agreement between Zhao Kuangyin and Empress Dowager Du ensured the first transfer of the throne in the Song Dynasty, from the overall irrational prisoner’s dilemma to a rational and controllable public pond model, laying a solid foundation for the Northern Song Dynasty. However, due to the lack of external mechanisms to ensure the continuous development of the public pond agreement, the operation of the public pond can only be operated according to the wishes of the contractor, so that the model can only be maintained for one generation. As an emergency political plan, "The Alliance of the Golden Chamber" successfully allowed the Northern Song Dynasty to complete its first transition to the throne in a relatively stable manner. However, as a succession plan, due to the lack of supervision by external mechanisms, the plan itself cannot develop sustainably..