道路工程建案成本預測模型-以C顧問公司為例

道路工程為台灣重要基礎建設，國內土木工程顧問公司在規劃設計階段、基本設計階段之成本估算，憑藉專業設計人員及資深經驗的工程師協助，依據規模相似之工程經驗與資料，將其轉化為數據並進行「工程經費估算」，再由估算經費撰寫「詳細價目表」統計計算而得。但因我國顧問公司專業人員因案件量大，無法於一個案件投入大量時間，則推估的金額常常與實際不符，進而發生營造廠案件標下後，因預算過低辦理追加，導致政府經費混亂而經常被檢討。本研究嘗試以多元線性迴歸之技術，由過去案例擷取主要工項及其金額，來解決”估算作業計算耗費時間”及”工程金額粗估差異”之問題。本研究以過去32個實際結算並已驗收工程案例為基礎，建立一適用於道路工程於規劃、基本設計階段之成本概算系統。關鍵字：道路工程、預估、工程經費估算、多元線性迴歸

關鍵字

道路工程；工程經費估算；預測；多元線性迴歸

並列摘要

Design and Implementation of an Integrated Testing System for SoftwareEngineering Road engineering is considered an importantinfrastructure construction in Taiwan. During the feasibility assessment andcost estimation of basic design stages, domestic civil engineering consultingcompanies rely on the assistance of professional designers and experiencedengineers. Based on engineering experience and data of a similar scale, thecost is estimated through a "Project Cost Estimate", and then a "DetailedPrice List" is calculated based on empirical experience. However, due to alarge number of cases in this region, the professional personnel of theconsulting companies cannot invest a lot of time in a single case, theestimated amount often does not match the actual amount. After the constructionplant case is awarded, the budget is often set too low to handle additionalprocessing, resulting in confusing government funding. Therefore, the ministryof interior is often frequently reviewed by opposing politicians. This research attempts to use the techniqueof multiple regression analysis to extract the main work items and theiramounts from past cases to solve the problems of "estimating thetime-consuming calculation of operations" and "differences in roughestimates of the project amount". Based on the past 32 actual settlementsand accepted engineering cases, this study establishes a cost estimation systemsuitable for road engineering in the planning and basic design stages. Keywords: Road engineering, feasibility assessment,project cost estimation, multiple regression analysis