This study proposals a potential analysis model for the hillslope debris flow and verify the model results. 30 hillslope debris flows and 30 non-debris flow in Kao-ping River induced by Typhoon Morakot are employed in the analysis model. 20 factor were selected, included the index of landslide area ratio that predicted by SHALSTAB model. The result of the discriminant analysis shows the classification rate reached 90% in which the catchment indicators, form factor ratio, q/t area percentage of prediction landslide, landslide susceptibility area, average width of effective watershed, hillslope aspect ratio of flow, average slope of flow, and hillslope average slope ratio are the most effective indexes to the analysis. The verification result of HDF potential analysis model which correctly distinguish between HDF and NDF are reached 85%. The potential model is proposal as well which also classified the hillslope debris flow into low, medium, and high potential.