臺灣香蕉收入保險理賠風險模擬分析

香蕉收入保險為收入保障型政策性保險，其基於無盈無虧原則，且費率結構中並無包含預期利潤，顯示保費制定與理賠支出的合理性會直接影響政府財政問題，故本研究應用資料包絡分析法與Malmquist指數法分析臺灣香蕉收入保險於2014年至2018年之理賠風險涵蓋率及理賠風險變動值，藉此探討各地區保險保費負擔率與其理賠風險變動來源。研究結果顯示，在理賠風險涵蓋方面，高保障、中保障及低保障程度下之保險保費在花蓮瑞穗、屏東佳冬、嘉義六腳所負擔保障相對於其他地區最高。理賠風險變動方面，雲林林內、花蓮萬榮、台東市等6地區在高保障程度下達最適狀態；中保障程度以高雄大寮、屏東里港、雲林林內等12地區達最適狀態；低保障程度則以高雄旗山、屏東高樹、雲林林內等24地區達最適狀態。風險變動來源若來自於風險前緣，則可加強其天然災害防災工作降低損失以減低風險變動值；若來自純個別風險則可採調高保險費或降低理賠金額；而規模風險則須避免搶種或哄抬價格情形發生。為健全農業保險之經營，建議農政單位應設定理賠門檻機制及加強宣導保險觀念以防範投機投保農民，進而減輕政府財政負擔問題，並使農業保險更完善。

關鍵字

農業保險；資料包絡分析法； Malmquist指數法

並列摘要

Banana Revenue Insurance is the act insurance, which is based on no-profit and no-loss principle, shows that the rationality of premium and claims expenses will directly affect government financial issues, so this study used Data Envelope Analysis and Malmquist index analyze the risk coverage rate and the change value of risk of Banana Revenue Insurance from 2014 to 2018, in order to explore the burden rate of premiums in various regions and the source of change in risk. The results show at high, medium and low levels of revenue covered, in Ruisui, Jiadong, Liujiao have the relatively highest risk coverage rate. In terms of risk change, at high levels of revenue covered, Linnei, Wanrong, Taidong City and other 6 areas, the risk have reached the optimal state; at middle levels, Daliao, Ligang, Linnei and other 12 areas, and Qishan, Gaoshu, Linnei and other 24 areas of low levels also reached. If the source of risk change comes from the frontier risk, it can strengthen its natural disaster prevention work to reduce risk. If it comes from pure unit risk, to increase the premium expenses or reduce the claims expenses. If it comes from scale risk, avoid rush-plant or jack up prices occurs. It is recommended that the government should set the claims mechanism and focus insurance concept promotion to reduce the financial burden and improve agricultural insurance.