循環設計應用於高排碳領導公司之淨零碳排策略評估-以林園石化工業為例

石油化學工業(簡稱石化工業)在我國的工業經濟層面發展中有著極為重要的角色，石化產品除了是民生基礎發展的必要物外，也是高科技工業的重要與關鍵原料，至今對於社會整體發展與經濟成長都有著密切關聯性。然而，石化工業雖為現代人帶來許多便利性，其附帶產生的溫室氣體排放量也相當驚人，於此我國行政院環境保護署(以下簡稱環保署)於2015年7月1日公告實施「溫室氣體減量管理理辦法」。當中明訂了溫室氣體減量政策包含有:「長期減量目標」及「階段管制目標」。長期減量目標為:「2050年溫室氣體排放量需降為2005年溫室氣體排放量50%以下」。階段減量策略目標為:「以2016年起要每5年進行些許幅度減量，而減量幅度為2%、10%、20%，最終在2050年達成50%的淨零碳排願景。而通過林園工業區上中下游產業關聯圖、經濟部工業局產業結構研究、國家溫室氣體排放清冊等統計數據，發現1990-2020年期間林園工業區有高達76.7%的溫室氣體排放量來自於「化學材料製造業」，也就是整條石化產業鏈的上游端，依文獻資料說明歷年林園石化工業區產業鏈上游物料產品「乙烯」主要依靠某A公司所設立的第三、四輕裂解油廠所提供。但在2015年因配合政府相關政策某A公司關閉了高雄第五輕煉油廠後，實行了「第三輕裂解工廠更新擴廠計畫」，將原乙烯設計總產能30萬噸/年的第三輕裂解油廠提升至總產能103萬噸/年，增幅約243%，並於2014年7月取得環保局核發操作許可正式擴大煉產。經彙整發現某A公司2000-2020年原料輕油總煉產比例由278萬噸逐年增加至681萬噸，年增率為6.93%，20年來整體漲幅為144.96%，相對影響溫室氣體排放量由240萬公噸CO2e增加至324萬公噸CO2e，當中在2016年更來到415萬公噸CO2e，佔整體林園石化工業區高達53.61%的碳排量，也說明某A公司符合本論文定義之林園工業區的高碳排領導公司。因此本研究透過運用環境庫茲涅茨曲線(EKC)進行策略擬定，以三種情境評估未來林園工業區在減碳路徑上的成效性。首先是以林園工業區排放量削減做為主要研究目的，手段以某A公司製造的石化產品「乙烯」為整個產業結構的評估，評估方向是套用EKC倒U曲線模擬三種策略分別是:策略一「維持現狀」、策略二「源頭減產」、策略三「乙烯進口策略」，找出最合適的減碳路徑，最後在以「2050年達成淨零碳排」為最終目標。研究結果在策略一「維持現狀」評估下發現，未來塑膠產品只會隨著人口的提升而逐年增加，台灣石化下游又屬出口為導向，因此如不實行更強勁的減碳政策，未來10年至20年要達成減碳10-20%的可行性將變得更嚴峻。研究結果在策略二「源頭減產」評估下發現，首先第一期程(2016-2020年)以環保署實際落實執行減碳成果說明，林園工業區實際排放量還有588.92萬公噸CO2e，與環保署訂定2%減量願景586.92萬公噸CO2e還差了1.98萬公噸CO2e，仍有0.34%的空間沒有達標，這現象也說明整體實行減量力度有不足之現象。因此第二期程(2021-2025年)以10%為減量目標，在導入本研究「源頭減產」之推估排放量後將可來到442.99萬公噸CO2e，實際減量幅度來到 24.77%，甚至已經超過環保署公告第三期程的減量成效。第三期程(2026-2030年)以20%為減量，本研究EKC模型推估之排放量將可來到286.45萬公噸CO2e，此時與環保署減量願景471.12萬公噸CO2e，多削減了184.67萬公噸CO2e，以基準年來看減量成效甚至以高達51.36%，最終「提前20年於2030年完成2050年淨零碳排的目標」。而研究結果策略三「乙烯進口」則考量到未來全球對於乙稀的需求量會隨著人口數的增加而提升，各國對於乙稀的擴產計劃仍不會停歇，因此建議某A公司可以向美國進口乙烯產品來補足上游之計畫性減產缺額。而主要是美國政府強調從現在開始至2030年10年間溫室氣體排放減量的重要性，且有計畫性的規劃達成2050年的淨零碳排目標，如此一來透過由美國進口乙烯成品來補足中下游產業需求將可以大大降低碳洩漏疑慮。

關鍵字

循環設計；減排；環境庫茲涅茨曲線；石化產業；淨零碳排

並列摘要

The petrochemical industry (referred to as petrochemical industry) plays an extremely important role in the development of Taiwan's industrial economy. In addition to being necessary for the basic development of people's livelihood, petrochemical products are also important and key raw materials for high-tech industries. Economic growth is closely related. However, although the petrochemical industry has brought a lot of convenience to modern people, its incidental greenhouse gas emissions are also quite alarming. Greenhouse Gas Reduction Management Measures". Among them, the greenhouse gas reduction policy is clearly defined, including: "long-term reduction target" and "phase control target". The long-term reduction target is defined as "the greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 must be reduced to less than 50% of the greenhouse gas emissions in 2005." The goal of the phased reduction strategy is defined as "since 2016, a small reduction will be carried out every 5 years, and the reduction range will be 2%, 10%, and 20%, and finally achieve a 50% net-zero carbon emissions vision in 2050. Through statistical data of the correlation map of the upstream, middle and downstream industries in the Linyuan Industrial Zone, the industrial structure research of the Industrial Bureau of the Ministry of Economic Affairs, and the National Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventory. Results showed that 76.7% of the greenhouse gas emissions in the Linyuan Industrial Zone from1990 to 2020 was contributed from the "chemical material manufacturing industry", that is the upstream end of the entire petrochemical industry chain.According to the literature, the upstream material product "ethylene" in the industrial chain of Linyuan Petrochemical Industrial Zone over the years is mainly provided by the Third and Fourth light oil refinery plants established of Company A. However, after Company A closed Kaohsiung Fifth light oil refinery plant in 2015 due to the government's relevant policies, it implemented the Three light oil refinery plant has been increased to a total production capacity of 1.03 million tons per year, an increase of about 243%. In July 2014, Company A obtained an operating license issued by the Environmental Protection Bureau and officially expanded its refinery capacity. After consolidation, Company A was found that the proportion of the total refining production of raw material light oil from 2000 to 2020 increased from 2.78 million tons to 6.81 million tons year by year, with an annual growth rate of 6.93%, and the overall increase in the past 20 years was 144.96%. 2.4 million metric tons of CO2e increased to 3.24 million metric tons of CO2e, of which 4.15 million metric tons of CO2e in 2016. Accounting for 53.61% of the total carbon emissions of Linyuan Petrochemical Industrial Zone, which also shows that a Company A meets the definition of high carbon emissions leading company of the industrial zone in this thesis. Therefore, in this study we have used the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) to formulate strategies and to evaluate the effectiveness of the future Linyuan Industrial Zone on the carbon reduction path in three scenarios. First of all, the main research purpose is to reduce the emission of Linyuan Industrial Zone, and the method used was the petrochemical product "ethylene" manufactured by Company A as the evaluation of the entire industrial structure. The evaluation direction was to apply the EKC inverted U curve to simulate three strategies: strategy The first strategy is "maintaining the status", the second strategy is "reducing production at the source", and the third strategy is "ethylene import strategy" to find the most suitable carbon reduction path, and finally set the ultimate goal of "achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050". The research results under the evaluation of secondary strategy "reduction at the Source". For the first phase (Year 2016-2020), it is based on the actual implementation of the carbon reduction results by the Taiwan Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The EPA's 2% reduction vision of 5,869,200 metric tons of CO2e is still 19,800 metric tons of CO2e, and there is still 0.34% of the room to fail to meet the standard. This phenomenon also shows that the overall reduction efforts are insufficient. For the second phase (Year 2021-2025), the reduction target is 10%. After introducing the estimated emission of "source reduction" in this study, it will reach 4,429,900 metric tons of CO2e, and the actual reduction will reach 24.77%, or even it has exceeded the reduction effect of the third phase announced by the EPA. For the third phase (Year 2026-2030) takes 20% of the reduction. The EKC model in this study has used to estimate that the emissions will reach 2,864,500 metric tons of CO2e. At this time, it is in line with the EPA’s reduction vision of 4,711,200 metric tons of CO2e, an increase of 184.67%. The reduction effect of 10,000 metric tons of CO2e is even as high as 51.36% based on the base year, and the goal of net zero carbon emission in 2050 could be completed 20 years ahead of schedule in 2030. The research results under the evaluation of the third strategy "ethylene import strategy" considers that the global demand for ethylene will increase with the increase of the population in the future, and the expansion plans for ethylene in various countries will not stop. Therefore, we would suggested that a Company A can import the ethylene products from the USA to make up for the shortfall in planned upstream production cuts. The main reason is that the USA government emphasizes the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions for 10 years from now to 2030, and has a planned plan to achieve the net-zero carbon emission goal in 2050, so as to make up for the demand of the middle and downstream industries by importing ethylene products from the USA, the doubts about carbon leakage will greatly be reduced.