應用資料探勘嘗試性探索台灣地方議員當選因素-以2018年直轄市及縣（市）議員選舉為例

投身選舉儼然成為一種新的社會現象，議員係地方代議政治的頂點，及進軍中央政治的重要跳板。因政黨及派系色彩較為薄弱，政治新人的選舉模式較為獨立自主。本研究以資料探勘方法，利用WEKA工具來分析台灣直轄市及（縣）市議員選舉，探勘資料以2018年候選人各項個人及經歷資料，來分析其與是否當選之影響因素，試圖解釋候選人資經歷，能否作為投身地方政治之關鍵要素，及與是否當選有關聯，並期望研究結果供投身地方政治者參考借鏡，更有效提供對策來經營管理自身狀態。經分析影響選舉結果之因素有：是否現任、縣（市）別、地理區域、選區大小、是否原住民、性別、年齡、是否在地人、政黨、學歷、是否曾任鄉（鎮、市）民代表。

關鍵字

地方政治；經歷；資料探勘；關聯性分析；決策樹

並列摘要

Participating in elections has become a new social phenomenon. Members of parliament are the apex of local representative politics and an important springboard for entering central politics. Due to the relatively weak color of political parties and factions, the election mode of political newcomers is relatively independent. This research uses the data mining method and WEKA tool to analyze the election of Taiwan's municipal and county councilors. The data mining uses the personal and experience data of the candidates in 2018 to analyze the factors that affect their election and try to explain the candidates' qualifications. Whether experience can be used as a key factor in participating in local politics , and whether it is related to getting elected or not, and it is hoped that the research results can be used as a reference for those who participate in local politics, and provide more effective countermeasures to manage their own status. After analysis, the factors that affect the election results include: incumbent or not, county (city), geographical area, constituency size, whether or not aboriginal, gender, age, local or not, political party, educational background, whether or not a town (township, city) Councillor.