虛擬偶像的可能性 -產業／消費結構與未來發展預測-

日本娛樂產業從古至今皆相當發達，偶像文化以及漫畫、動畫文化除了促進日本觀光及文化發展外，一直以來也為日本帶來不少商機。在歷史演變中，將”偶像”概念以及動、漫畫角色結合，而發展出”虛擬偶像”為相當常見的事例。隨著科技及文化潮流進步，虛擬偶像也出現了許多新的形態。其中結合了直播產業，並能直接與觀眾互動的虛擬偶像”VTuber”為現今最流行的虛擬偶像經營模式。本研究採文獻分析法，分析虛擬偶像至今發展演變，並探討其產業構成及相關產業的演變，最後以日本文化發展觀點下去解析虛擬偶像的消費構成，以此推論虛擬偶像未來可能的走向。其結論為虛擬偶像未來走向有以下可能性: 1. 隨著動、漫畫美少女風格發展變化出不同樣的外觀。虛擬偶像樣貌會趨近於當代流行審美。 2. AI人工智能發展蓬勃，以真人演繹的虛擬偶像將有用AI人工智能來演繹的可能性，現今AI人工智能已能流暢即時對話，並克服真人無法長時間工作的部分。但模仿情緒及同理心等軟實力部分是AI人工智能尚未能達成的課題。 3. 虛擬偶像目前以線上直播平台為媒介跟客群互動，拉近與客群的距離。未來元宇宙普及將會使虛擬偶像多了可更近距離跟觀眾互動的平台，使觀眾更有參與感。

關鍵字

虛擬偶像； VTuber ；動畫；漫畫；消費結構

並列摘要

Japan's entertainment industry has historically been highly developed, with idol culture, manga, and anime playing significant roles in promoting tourism and cultural development. These elements have also created substantial business opportunities. Over time, the concept of "idol" has evolved, merging with animated and manga characters to form the phenomenon known as "virtual idols." With advancements in technology and cultural trends, virtual idols have diversified into various forms. Among these, the "VTuber" model, which combines virtual idols with live streaming and direct audience interaction, has become particularly popular. Notable examples include Kizuna AI and Hololive's array of characters. This study uses literature analysis to examine the development and evolution of virtual idols, exploring the industry's composition and related changes. It also analyzes the consumption structure of virtual idols within the context of Japanese cultural development to predict potential future trends. The conclusions suggest several possible future trends for virtual idols: 1.Evolution of Appearances: Virtual idols' appearances will likely continue to evolve, reflecting contemporary aesthetic trends. The "moe" or beautiful girl style from anime and manga is expected to transform. 2. AI-Driven Performances: With the rapid development of AI technology, there is potential for virtual idols to be portrayed using AI-driven performances. While AI can now facilitate smooth, real-time conversations and overcome human endurance limitations, challenges remain in replicating emotional and empathetic skills. 3. Enhanced Interaction: Currently, virtual idols interact with their audiences through online streaming platforms, bringing them closer to their fans. The future proliferation of the metaverse could offer even more immersive platforms for interaction, enhancing the sense of participation.