打炒房政策對臺灣營建類股之影響

The Impact of the Real Estate Speculation Policy on Taiwan's Construction Stock

張藝馨(Yi-Hsin Chang)

Advisor ： 王朝仕

國立臺中科技大學/商學院/企業管理系碩士班/碩士(2021年)

Abstracts

本研究運用事件研究法探討自2010年至2021年三項不動產管制政策，對臺灣營建股股價產生異常報酬之影響，並提供政府未來修正政策或投資人投資決策之參考。
本研究共分析17個事件，實證結果發現，首次實施全面性選擇性信用管制、首次實施實價登錄、首次實施房地合一稅制政策等屬首次宣告事件，對營建股股價產生之異常報酬，均有相當高的負向反應，甚或負向反應程度大部分高於各項政策再次修正階段之事件。從另一面向分析，在三項管制政策之各事件比較發現，實價登錄2.0三讀通過之負累積平均異常報酬居首，次之為首次發布房地合一稅制1.0事件，而選擇性信用管制則有部分事件產生顯著性異常報酬。顯見各不動產管制政策之重要性，大部分每一階段的宣告事件對營建股股價產生負異常報酬且具顯著性，惟2021年起宣告實施房地合一2.0稅制及選擇性信用管制第8波階段，則呈現正向反應之異常報酬。

Keywords

事件研究法 ； 選擇性信用管制 ； 實價登錄 ； 房地合一稅制 ； 營建股

Parallel abstracts

The aim of this research is using Event Study method to analyze the impacts of the abnormal returns on the share prices of Construction stocks in Taiwan, under the real estate control policies from 2010 to 2021. The results could provide suggestions for our government’s policy amendment in the future and the investment decision making by investors.
Our research analyzed 17 event studies totally. The empirical results found that the events of the initial declaration such as initial implementation of the overall selective credit control, initial implementation of The Actual Value Registration, and the initial implementation of The Integrated Housing and Land Tax Policy, which have large negative impacts for the abnormal returns on the share prices of construction stocks in Taiwan. The impacts of the most initial events even larger than policies in the reamendment stage. Comparing the events of the three different policies, the cumulative average abnormal returns of The Actual Value Registration version 2 have the largest negative impacts. The event of initial declaration of The Integrated Housing and Land Tax Policy version 1 ranked second. Besides, partial events generate significant abnormal returns by the selective credit control policy. Accordingly, the Real Estate control policy is essential, and it mostly generated significant abnormal returns on the share prices of construction after the declaration of events in each stage. Yet the declaration of The Integrated Housing and Land Tax Policy version 2 and the 8th stage of selective credit control in 2021, had positive impacts of abnormal returns.

Parallel keywords

event study ； selective credit control ； actual value registration ； the integrated housing and land tax system ； construction stocks

References

參考文獻

一、中文文獻

1.王壬輔（2013），不動產實價登錄對營建業股票報酬率之影響，國立台灣大學會計學碩士論文。

2.江怡蘭（2015），政府打房措施對上市(櫃)營建股之影響，淡江大學碩士論文。

3.沈中華、李建然（2000），事件研究法─財務與會計實證研究必備，台北：華泰文化事業公司。