- 學位論文
道德危險於防疫險保單的實證分析
The Empirical Analysis of Moral Hazard in Epidemic Prevention Policy
摘要
本文探究2022年1月至10月新冠病毒疫情期間，台灣民眾對於投保防疫險保單的風險意識及感染新冠病毒是否與投保防疫險保單有關，並探討在確診條件放寬後，投保防疫險的民眾是否存在道德危險。本文將投保防疫險時期區分為高、低風險期，並依是否感染新冠病毒，將感染期區分為1-3月低風險期、4-5月未放寬確診標準的高風險期及6月以後放寬確診標準的高風險期。透過觀察投保防疫險保單是否存在較高的感染率及觀察不同時期感染率的變化，實證結果顯示，投保防疫險者並沒有較低的感染率，然而進一步觀察感染新冠病毒的高、低風險期，投保防疫險者僅在6月放寬確診標準後有顯著較高的感染率，此結果排除逆選擇及事前道德危險存在的可能性，並證實事後道德危險存在於防疫險保單的證據。
並列摘要
This study aims to explore Taiwanese people’s risk awareness on taking out an epidemic prevention policy and whether coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection is related to the epidemic prevention policy during the COVID-19 outbreak from Jan. to Oct. 2022. The study also aims to discuss whether a moral hazard exists among the people who have taken out the epidemic prevention policy after relaxing restrictions on diagnosis criteria. In this study, the period of taking out the policy of epidemic prevention insurance is divided into high- and low-risk phases. In addition, based on the infectious state of COVID-19, the infection period is divided into a low-risk period from Jan. to Mar., a high-risk period that failed to relax restrictions on diagnosis criteria from Apr. to May, and a high-risk period that relaxed restrictions on diagnosis criteria since June. This study observes whether there is a high infection rate among the people who have taken out the epidemic prevention policy and observes the change in infection rate in different periods. The empirical analysis result shows that no low infection rate exists among those taking out the policy. However, after further observing the conditions in the high- and low-risk phases of COVID-19 infection, there is a significantly high infection rate among people who have taken out the policy only after relaxing restrictions on diagnosis criteria since June. Based on this result, the possibility of adverse selection and ex-ante moral hazard is excluded, which proves that ex-post moral hazard exists in epidemic prevention policy.