金融危機與COVID-19對台灣證劵市場之影響-以電器及電子相關產業為例

本論文是探討2008年金融危機和2019年全球所爆發的新型冠狀病毒肺炎Covid-19對台灣證券市場的影響，以電器及相關電子產業為研究對象。我們以事件研究法分析金融危機和新型冠狀病毒疫情對這一特定產業的衝擊，並研究其對證券市場的影響，主要以半導體產業、通訊網路產業、電子零組件產業以及電子通路產業共509家公司為研究樣本，觀察對於電器及相關電子產業類股是否產生異常報酬。研究結果發現金融危機期間對台灣股市帶來非常大之衝擊，跌幅超過50%以上，但在四個產業之中，只有半導體產業的異常報酬率之平均數為正，而在累計異常報酬率也有類似情況，在事件期尾聲半導體產業累計異常報酬已由負轉為正；在疫情期間在研究的產業分類中，異常報酬率的平均數及中位數皆為正數，代表電器及相關電子產業，在Covid-19事件期間中，非但沒有受到疫情拖累，反而有逆勢成長之傾向，皆呈現V字走向，並在事件期尾聲，累計異常報酬率皆轉為正數，由此可見，COVID-19對於電器相關產業有著明顯的「疫情紅利」。透過此研究，我們期望深入了解全球經濟波動對台灣證券市場及電器及相關電子產業的影響。

關鍵字

金融危機；新型冠狀病毒肺炎；事件研究法

並列摘要

This paper investigates the impact of the 2008 financial crisis and the 2019 global outbreak of the novel coronavirus pneumonia (Covid-19) on the Taiwanese stock market, focusing on the electrical and related electronic industries. The study employs an event study methodology to analyze the effects of the financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic on this specific industry, examining their influence on the securities market. The research concentrates on four sectors: the semiconductor industry, communication networks industry, electronic components industry, and electronic distribution industry, comprising a total of 509 companies as the research sample. The objective is to observe whether abnormal returns occur in the electrical and related electronic industry sectors. These results indicate that the financial crisis have a significant impact on the Taiwanese stock market, with a decline of over 50%. However, among the four industries studied, only the semiconductor industry exhibited a positive average abnormal return during this period. The cumulative abnormal return for the semiconductor industry also shifted from negative to positive towards the end of the event period. During the Covid-19 pandemic, within the categorized industries, both the average and median abnormal return rates are positive, suggesting that the electrical related industries not only remain resilient to the pandemic but also demonstrate a tendency for counter-cyclical growth. This trend followe a V-shaped trajectory, with cumulative abnormal returns turning positive towards the end of the event period. These findings highlight a noticeable "pandemic dividend" for the electrical related industries amidst the Covid-19 crisis. Through this study, we aim to gain a deeper understanding of the impact of global economic fluctuations on the Taiwan stock market and the electrical appliance related industries in Taiwan.