- 學位論文
虛擬貨幣與國家事件之關聯性與影響力分析
Analysis of the Correlation and Influence of Virtual Currency and National Events
摘要
本研究旨在探討國家政策對虛擬貨幣價格變動的影響，所採用的政策為2017年12月1日，比特幣對美國證券交易委員會(Securities and Exchange Commission, SEC)申請成為ETF(Exchange Traded Fund)商品，並將該法案發生的時間點切成三個時間段，分別為時間段1: 比特幣對美國SEC申請成為ETF商品之前。時間段2: 2017年12月1日到2018年8月23日，美國證SEC會拒絕比特幣申請。時間段3:2018年8月24日之後。所以本研究以比特幣的歷史價格為主要研究對象，並加入以太幣、萊特幣作為對照組，資料分析方法使用ADF單根檢驗、PP檢驗、t 檢定、單因子變異數分析、皮爾森相關分析及複迴歸分析。 研究結果顯示，在三個時間段中比特幣的價格有著顯著的差異。在時間段2中三種虛擬貨幣的價格都由所提升，尤其是比特幣。且在皮爾森相關分析中，萊特幣與比特幣、以太幣皆有著高度相關。本研究者據研究結果提出相關建議，可以從萊特幣的價格走勢，觀察比特幣、以太幣的價格變化，且證實國家政策對於虛擬貨幣有著龐大的影響力。
並列摘要
The purpose of this study is to explore the impact of national policies on changes in virtual currency prices. The policy adopted in this study is December 1, 2017, when Bitcoin applied to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to become an ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) commodity. And the time point of the bill is cut into three time periods, namely time period 1, before Bitcoin applies to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to become an ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) commodity, time period 2, 2017 12 From the 1st of the month to August 23, 2018, the US Securities and Exchange Commission rejected the Bitcoin application, time period 3, after August 24, 2018. Therefore, this study takes the historical price of Bitcoin as the main research object, and adds Ethereum and Litecoin as the control group. The data analysis method uses ADF single root test, PP test, t test, single factor variance analysis, Pearson correlation analysis. And complex regression analysis. The results of the study show that there is a significant difference in the price of bitcoin over the three time periods. In the time period 2, the prices of the three virtual currencies are increased, especially bitcoin. In the Pearson correlation analysis, Litecoin is highly correlated with Bitcoin and Ethereum. According to the research results, the researchers can observe the price changes of Bitcoin and Ethereum from the price trend of Litecoin, and confirm that the national policy has a huge influence on virtual currency.