- 學位論文
以平均故障間隔時間為基礎之氣渦輪發電機熱元件用料需求決策分析策略
MTBF-based Decision Analysis Strategy of Gas Turbine Engine Component Needs
若您是本文的作者，可授權文章由華藝線上圖書館中協助推廣。
摘要
由於目前我國各複循環電廠對於熱元件用料計畫的編制，都是以原廠告知的熱元件應使用的時數或是電廠人員過去的經驗直接來預測。然而，因每部機組未來大修日、機組使用壽命、熱元件使用標準壽命、熱元件可使用再生次數等這些數值，原廠都有詳細的規範，而且電廠人員的作業保養程序也都必須根據這些規範來進行，以期能獲取可靠、穩定及連續的電力供應。但因不同的使用方式、環境也會造成熱元件使用壽命的不同，忽略了這些外在因素有可能發生資源浪費及庫存不足問題。 因此，本研究將以平均故障間隔時間為基礎，制定氣渦輪發電機熱元件用料需求決策分析，期能輔助我國目前發電廠了解未來特定氣渦輪發電機對特定熱元件供需情形，減少電廠停機待料及備料過多情況發生。除此之外，更希望能藉由此研究結果來協助我國發電廠之用料單位，規劃出熱元件最佳化用料排程，俾利決定熱元件新品採購時點及最經濟的採購數 量，降低整體熱元件維護與管理成本。 除此之外，熱元件在使用時也有一些規則，如再生次數、再生時間、使用壽命及預購時間等。因此，在本研究中將再利用這些原則配合推估出機組的預定失效日，建置一套氣渦輪發電機熱元件用料需求決策資訊系統來輔助熱元件採購排程的預測，以提高採購預測的準確度，並降低熱元件的庫存成本。
並列摘要
At present, the most common methods employed by combined cycle power plants to schedule component planning are based on the data provided by the manufacturer or the experience of the power plant staff. However, detailed specifications from the original factory relate to the regular overhaul of each turbine engine, the service life of the turbine engine, the standard life of the thermal element, and the regeneration times. The power plant personnel must also perform operational procedures and maintenance in accordance with these specifications to achieve a reliable, stable, and continuous power supply. Variations in usage and environment can lead to variations in the service life of the thermal component. Ignoring these external factors may result in a waste of resources and lack of inventory. In this study, a strategic decision analysis of Mean Time Between Failure-based (MTBF-based) gas turbine engine components needs is proposed. This analysis is expected to assist power plant personnel in understanding the state of supply and demand for the special thermal components of specific gas turbine generators, thereby reducing the probability of the plant shutting down as the result of pending components and over-consumption of spares. In addition, it is hoped that the results of this study will assist power plants to plan optimal schedules for thermal components, decide the appropriate procurement time and the economical purchase quantity of thermal components, and reduce overall thermal component maintenance and management costs. In addition, various absolute principles for the usage of thermal components, such as the times of regeneration, the period of regeneration, service life, and requisitions timing, are considered. This study draws on these principles and the next scheduled expiry date to develop an information system for facilitating schedule forecasting. Thus, the accuracy of prediction of procurement is improved, and the inventory cost of the thermal element is reduced.
參考文獻
[7] 周有洸(2003)，「彈簧式安全閥之失效分析與可靠度評估」，碩士論文，國立交通大學工學院產業安全與防災學程，pp. 1-14。
[15] 陳志偉(2004)，「韋伯可靠度檢定問題之探討」，碩士論文，國立中央大學統計研究所，pp. 1-13。
[25] 楊棋全(2004)，「指數與韋伯分佈遺失值之處理」，碩士論文，國立中央大學統計研究所，pp. 1-16。
[28] 賴維祥、趙怡欽、郭博涵(2008)，「氣化合成氣於分散式氣渦輪發電系統之應用」，物理雙月刊卅卷四期，pp. 422-425。
[29] M.V. Araset (1987), “How to Identify a Bathtub Hazard Rate,” IEEE Transactions on Reliability, Vol. 36, No. 1, pp. 106-108.