摘要
汽車產業是工業的骨幹，因為汽車產業包含很多基礎工業，汽車產業的發展可以帶動其他產業的發展，有助於國家工業化、現代化與保障國防安全。因此汽車產業是越南國家經濟發展的重要政策，隨著國家經濟的快速發展，汽車業越來越受重視。因此本研究主要探討2000～2016 年間越南汽車產業的發展及銷售現況，並分析影響越南國內汽車製造量的因素，以瞭解未來越南汽車產業的發展方向。實證結果如下： 外國直接投資對越南國內汽車製造數量的影響為正向，表示外國直接投資增加，促使越南汽車製造業成長，汽車製造數量會增加。總平均人口的影響為正向，表示人口越多，汽車需求越高，汽車製造數量會增加。越南人均GDP對越南國內汽車製造數量的影響為先減後增，即隨著人均GDP的增加、工資提高、成本增加、使汽車生產量下降。但因工人的技術可能越來越熟練，以致汽車生產量增加。 而越南汽車進口關稅的影響為正向，表示進口關稅越高，對國內汽車有保護效果，以致國內汽車製造數量增加。但由於東協自由貿易協定(AFTA)於2018年1月1日起生效，屆時東協會員國產製汽車輸往越南將適用0%關稅，對越南國內組裝汽車產業經營將造成重大影響。為因應來自泰國及印尼產製汽車之市場衝擊，未來越南政府應協助提升國內汽車組裝廠商生產及營運能力，調降汽車零組件之進口關稅及企業營所稅，並加強吸引外國直接投資，以促進國內汽車業的發展。
並列摘要
Automobile industry is the important policy of national economic development in Vietnam. With the rapid development of national economy, more and more attention is paid to the automobile industry. Therefore, this research mainly discussed the current development and sales of automobile industry during the period from 2000 to 2016 in Vietnam and analyzed the factors affecting Vietnam’s automobile manufacturing quantity, so as to understand the future development direction of Vietnam’s automobile industry. The empirical results are shown as below: Foreign direct investment has the positive effect on Vietnam’s automobile manufacturing quantity. It means that the increase in foreign direct investment will promote Vietnam’s automobile manufacturing industry to grow and the automobile manufacturing quantity will increase. The total average population has the positive effect on Vietnam’s automobile manufacturing quantity. It means that the larger population will cause the higher demand for automobile. Thus, the automobile manufacturing quantity will increase. Vietnam’s GDP per capita firstly has the negative effect and then has the positive effect on Vietnam’s automobile manufacturing quantity. Namely, when the GDP per capita increases, the wage increases. Thus the increased cost will cause automobile manufacturing quantity to decline. But the workers’ technology may become more and more skilled, causing the automobile manufacturing quantity to increase. Vietnam’s automobile import tariff has the positive effect on Vietnam’s automobile manufacturing quantity. It means that the higher import tariff has the protective effect on Vietnam’s automobile, causing the Vietnam’s automobile manufacturing quantity to increase. In order to respond to the market impact of the automobile manufactured by Thailand and Indonesia, the government of Vietnam should help to improve the manufacturing and operating ability of Vietnamese automobile assembly manufacturers, reduce the import tariff of automobile components and taxes on enterprises and strengthen foreign direct investment in the future to promote the development of Vietnam’s automobile industry.
參考文獻
參考文獻
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