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  • 學位論文

國際動能策略與季節性效應

International Momentum Strategies and Seasonal Effects

指導教授 : 陳獻儀
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摘要


本研究首先探討國際股市動能策略的獲利性,並進一步將樣本國家區分為已開發國家和新興市場國家兩類子樣本,觀察在不同經濟發展程度市場下,是否也存在著動能現象。研究樣本國家共計有39個,其中包含21個已開發國家與18個新興市場國家,在1992年7月至2008年10月的觀測期間中,實證結果發現國際動能策略的確展現出顯著的獲利性,無論在已開發國家或新興市場國家中同樣都產生顯著的動能利潤。其次,再進一步觀察動能利潤之季節性效應後,已開發國家在十二月份有較高的動能利潤顯現,符合節稅假說所描述的型態,相對的,機構投資人之窗飾效應對國際動能策略,並未具有顯著的影響力。

並列摘要


This paper examines the profitability of international momentum strategies. Using stock market index data from 21 developed and 18 emerging markets over the July 1992 to October 2008 period, we find the profitability of international momentum trading strategies in both developed and emerging markets. Furthermore, we also find that the patterns of international momentum profits in the developed markets confirm the view of tax-loss selling hypothesis. Otherwise, institutional window dressing does not play a substantial role in international momentum strategies.

參考文獻


1.Chan, K., Hameed, A., and Tong, W., 2000. Profitability of momentum strategies in the international equity markets. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 35, 153-172.
3.Chui, A., Titman, S., and Wei, K. C. J., 2000. Momentum, ownership structure, and financial crises: an analysis of asian stock markets. Working Paper, University of Texas at Austin.
4.Conrad, J., and Kaul, G., 1998. An anatomy of trading strategies. Review of Financial Studies 11, 489-519
5.DeBondt, W., and Thaler, R., 1985. Does the stock market overreact? Journal of Finance 40, 793-805.
6.DeBondt, W., and Thaler, R., 1987. Further evidence in investor overreaction and stock market seasonality, Journal of Finance 42, 557-581.

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